Stop incentivising population growth

Updated 24 May, 2023

EDITORIAL: Minister for Planning Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal while briefing the media emphasised the need to delink the horizontal distribution of divisible pool resources (within provinces) from population growth (currently 80 percent of such distribution is based on population) under the applicable National Finance Commission (NFC) award.

The current framework is disturbingly tantamount to not only incentivising higher population growth - a source of serious concern as it is straining the country’s already inadequate social and physical infrastructure, prompting Iqbal to declare that “no enemy needs to pull us down, this population growth alone will do” – and accounts for significant census manipulation in favour of one party over another as it is used not only for the delimitation exercise of constituencies but also determines the quota of government employment and other associated monetary incentives.

At present, the province-wide distribution from the divisible pool is as follows: Punjab 51.74 percent, Sindh 24.55 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.62 percent and Balochistan 9.09 percent. In this context, for Ahsan Iqbal, a PML-N leader with a power centred in Punjab, to propose a change must be appreciated as Punjab would be the largest loser if the share of population in the divisible pool is reduced.

In this context, it is relevant to note that in 2010 when the tenth NFC award was under discussion the then Chief Minister Punjab Shehbaz Sharif reportedly agreed to a reduction in the share of population in the Award in return for the then President Asif Ali Zardari agreeing to remove the bar to a third term for a prime minister, to facilitate Nawaz Sharif to become prime minister for a third term under the then ongoing 18th Constitutional Amendment.

It is important to note that Iqbal’s statement was politically timely as he heads the monitoring committee on the just concluded seventh census with its results rendered controversial, prompting the aggrieved parties to seek another (the sixth) extension to the census.

The Chief of Census, also present during the press briefing, stated that population growth under the census was 2.7 percent against 2.4 percent in the previous census which has “very serious ramifications and Pakistan will become a joke.”

It is unfortunate that reaching a consensus on any matter relating to the economy has and continues to be fraught with political overtones in this country. The vertical distribution agreed in the last NFC award has been much criticised even by those who were actively engaged in the 10th NFC award on the grounds that the federal government’s share in the divisible pool declined, thereby leaving insufficient funds to meet the federal annual expenditure.

No mention is ever made of the sustained failure of all post-2010 successive administrations to de facto devolve subjects agreed to be devolved under the 2010 18th Constitutional Amendment by doing away with ministries on devolved subjects in the federal governments and to this day large budgetary allocations are made each year to fund development expenditure for those sectors like education and health that are no longer part of the federal legislative list.

In addition to the share of provinces that is primarily determined by population size, there are two other population dependent areas, which are no less important, so to speak.

The number of seats in the National Assembly from each province and the job quotas in the federal government are also determined by the size of population of each province. It is therefore evident that there is a strong incentive to maximise the population to receive greater benefits despite the fact that this unhindered growth in population is a heavy drag on the national economy. In other words, for the economy, the portents are extremely gloomy, to say the least.

While an agreement on a charter of economy may be considered by some as a move aimed at militating against the very precepts of a democracy, given that different political parties’ manifestoes identify different sets of priority objectives based on diverse frameworks designed to achieve growth and development, yet there is an urgent need to engage across the political divide on certain matters that relate to the well-being of the general public.

That unchecked population growth strains resources is a fact. One of the short-term implications of it will be an increased demand for food. Can we feed the entire country and ensure no one goes hungry?

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

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