With Pakistan facing both economic and security crises of increasing proportions, lately arguments have been put forth that Islamabad should try to create some breathing space by restoring ties (especially trading flows) with India. The potential economic and peace dividends are compelling indeed. And both countries have prudently added some quiet years since the two precipices of the year 2019. However, there are several indications why a thaw in these frozen relations may remain a pipedream for some time.
For one, it takes two to tango. Even at the basic level, things get complicated. While Pakistan could really use produce from India to boost local supply and stabilize food prices, there is danger of political backlash against the PDM government, whichis ruling with a weak mandate. Mainstream political parties have consensus on dialogue with India, but opportunism also strikes sometimes. Across the border, too, the government is hostage to the very anti-Pakistan sentiment that it had a role in whipping up to win polls.
Moreover, it appears that some hardnosed calculations have already been made by the Modi government. A few weeks ago, the Indian Foreign Minister publicly linked Pakistan’s economic crisis with its alleged support for militancy. He also refused any direct or indirect assistance. Those statements gave away the impression that New Delhi is looking to further squeeze and weaken Islamabad diplomatically, even in this hour of crisis. However, an unstable Pakistan cannot be in India’s interest in the long term.
Furthermore, the nature of ‘big power competition’ is also indirectly impacting Indo-Pak relations. For instance, after the Biden administration restored high-level contacts with Pakistan in mid-2022 in order to counter Chinese influence, India reacted with considerable displeasure. That put paid to any hopes of US intervention to broker peace between the two neighbors. Similarly, the continuing India-China territorial standoff has the potential to entangle Pakistan, a possibility that also fuels distrust across the border.
In addition, even if the two governments have the best of intentions, the timeline seems less amenable for any major breakthrough to take place in the near future. Over the next twelve months, both Pakistan and India are scheduled to go for national elections. If the recent past is any guide, the jingoism in the prelude the elections is expected to be comparatively higher in India than in Pakistan. It remains to be seen if the level of anti-Pakistan sloganeering that took place in the 2019 India polls will be topped in the 2024 polls.
On top of that, every now and then, there are revelations that stoke even more suspicions. The latest one involves a former governor of the India-occupied Kashmir publicly blaming the Modi government for a) its incompetence in preventing the February 2019 Pulwama attack that killed dozens of Indian soldiers, and b) using the tragedy to attack Pakistan and create a winning platform for elections a few months later. Whatever the truth may be, there is constant danger of the game of brinksmanship going horribly wrong.