ISLAMABAD: The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022-31 (IGCEP-2022), submitted by the NTDC in keeping with the relevant provisions of the Grid Code 2005.
According to a statement of the Authority, it is pertinent to mention that the IGCEP is a dynamic document covering a planning horizon of 10 years and will be revised annually. It will act as a primary document for adding new capacity for generation to meet future electricity demand in a scientific and systematic manner; thus, avoiding the boom and bust cycles that have become a recurring issue in the country.
The IGCEP-2022 builds on the plans laid down by the preceding iteration and proposes a gradual shift from an energy mix heavily dominated by imported fossils like coal, furnace oil and RLNG towards one pillared by indigenous sources of energy, including hydel, Thar coal, wind, and solar. Furnace oil is expected to be phased out by 2031.
Similarly, electricity generation from RLNG and imported coal will drop to two per cent and eight per cent, respectively, in 2031. At the same time, there will be a substantial increase in the electricity generated by hydel, wind and solar PV.
The contribution of hydel, wind and solar PV which currently stands at 28 per cent, four per cent, and one per cent, respectively, will be increased to 39 per cent, 10 per cent, and 10 per cent, respectively; thereby, increasing the total share of green electricity to around 59 per cent.
The Authority is satisfied that the IGCEP-2022 is based on the utilization of indigenous and Renewable Energy resources for the generation of low-cost, environment-friendly electricity.
The IGCEP-2022 also provides details for six additional scenarios, simulated to cater for any unforeseen events in the future.
These include scenarios dealing with lower and higher electricity demands as well as four sensitivity scenarios dealing with early commissioning of Diamer-Basha Hydropower Project in 2029, commissioning of Chashma Nuclear (C-5) in 2029, inclusion of local coal power projects in 2027 and 2030 and unconstrained addition of projects based on renewable energy.
The Authority appreciates the efforts of the planning department of NTDC which developed the IGCEP-2022 using indigenous capability. Further, the Authority recognizes the efforts of all power sector stakeholders especially the energy departments of the provinces and the Power Division of the Ministry of Energy, who have provided their very useful inputs in the preparation of IGCEP-2022.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023