SINGAPORE: Brent oil may fall to $61.09, as it has pierced below a support at $62.65 per barrel again.

Following its failure on Tuesday, oil is highly likely to break the support on Wednesday. The break will open the way towards $61.09, the 50% retracement of a five-wave cycle from $54.48.

The wave (4) ended at $60.35, the Feb. 12 low. Wave theory suggests a fall towards this level. Resistance is at $62.92, the 100% projection level of a downward wave c from $65.93.

The break below $62.65 will be considered to be false, once oil stands firm above $62.92. On the daily chart, oil broke a support at $63.03, the 14.6% retracement of the uptrend from $35.74 to $67.70. It may retreat towards $60.16.

The trend was driven by a wave C, which is roughly equal to the preceding wave A. This equality suggests a reversal of the uptrend from the April 22, 2020 low of $15.98.

Even if the trend has not reversed, the current correction could be somewhat match the one from the Aug. 31, 2020 high of $46.53, in duration or depth.

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