NEW YORK: Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower and exporter, is expected to produce 52.9 million 60-kg bags in 2021, 23% less than the record crop of 68.21 million bags seen for 2020, exporter Grupo Montesanto Tavares said on Tuesday.

According to the company's estimates, Brazilian production of arabica coffee will fall 37% to 31.23 million bags, while robusta coffee output is seen rising 17% to 21.67 million bags.

Brazil is entering its off-year in the biennial production cycle for arabica coffee that alternates years of higher and lower production.

Growers and researchers, however, see production falling more than expected in 2021 due to a long dry spell in 2020 that they said hurt the key flowering period, leading to a smaller production potential.

Grupo Montesanto Tavares is a holding company controlling farms, exporting companies and coffee trading firms in Brazil, the United States and Europe. It is one of the largest exporters of Brazilian coffee, having shipped around 2.4 million bags in 2020.

Ricardo Tavares, the holding's president, expects international coffee prices to rise in 2021 due to the smaller Brazilian supply.

Arabica coffee prices in New York have been stable, ending 2020 at almost the same level it started that year.