At the rate we are going, cars and jeeps could cross the 200,000-unit mark by the time we wrap up FY18, while the auto industry on the whole, excluding motorcycles, is just shy of 8,600 units hitting that much at seven months in the fiscal year. That is some unprecedented growth.
As per numbers reported by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers’ Association (PAMA), the locally assembled passenger cars, jeeps, commercial vehicles and tractors grew by 28 percent in 7MFY18, year-on-year, with the highest growth witnessed in cars with less than 1000cc engines (61%), and tractors (45%). Average monthly sales for cars are nearly 18,000 units so far into FY18; while it was around 15,000 units during this period last year. Meanwhile, Completely Built Units (CBU) imports for cars grew by 65 percent in the July-Dec period year-on-year.
The Completely Knocked Down (CKD) imports for cars grew by 27 percent; overall for the sector by 32 percent; and this will likely see an incline in the coming months as rupee devalued. The devaluation also caused the major local car assemblers to increase car prices. These price hikes are unlikely to result in any decrease in demand for any of these cars. (Read full details: “Autos on steroids”, Jan 16, 2018).
https://www.brecorder.com/2018/01/16/393237/autos-on-steroids/ Demand is in abundance as evidenced by local car sales and imports of used cars.
For car giant Pakistan Suzuki (PSX: PSMC); Cultus (36%), Mehran (27%) and Wagon-R (84%) sales are flourishing with the latter now accounting for 20 percent share in the product space of Suzuki volumetric sales. Suzuki landed a total overall growth of 31 percent during 7MFY18 with 56 percent of the market share among the three players- car giant, indeed.
Though the government issued a new regulation to curb used car imports, our market intelligence suggests the restriction might get reversed. In either case, as we opined earlier: “if the government is able to double down on used car imports, Suzuki cars—which operate in the same market space as used imported vehicles coming into the country—could shoot up further”.
Honda Atlas Cars (PSX: HCAR) that has been on a roll since 2016 is now capturing 20 percent of the market share. The company saw successful launches of new models as well as introduced local assembly of the Honda BR-V, which has sold over 5,500 units by 7MFY18. The crossover SUV has the feel of a comfortable SUV and is more affordable than imported variety like Suzuki Vitara or the traditional SUV, Toyota Fortuner.
Having cancelled thousands of such bookings, it is likely the decrease in sales comes as a result of this move. However, this does not affect the demand for Toyota much since Corolla remains a fan favourite. It just means consumers will have to wait for 6-months or more to get their cars delivered.
In the commercial vehicles front, sales have been subdued, but different dynamics come into play when we are talking about trucks and buses, which we hope to tackle in the next column.
As for all the talk on potential competition in passenger cars, it is evident that the three car players are prepared to tackle it head-on, however little or late that competition may be. They have a unique advantage of being in the market for over three decades. It will take no less than 7-10 years for new car ventures to establish their foot even if they start producing by FY19. It’s a long road getting to more than three substantial players in the game, but surely, there is no rent on being optimistic.