TREASURIES-US bond yields fall before ISM, FOMC minutes

03 Jan, 2018

Bond markets around the world rebounded from Tuesday's selloff tied to hawkish comments from two European Central Bank officials, which propelled the 10-year German Bund yield to a two-month peak and the five-year US yield to its highest level since April 2011.

Some investors said Tuesday's yield rise was partly a reversal of the drop linked to typical year-end buying.

"A majority of yesterday's move was a move back of what happened over the year-end holiday," said Jason Celente, senior portfolio manager at Insight Investment in New York.

At 9:27 a.m. (1437 GMT), benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down 2 basis points at 2.443 percent, while the two-year yield dipped 0.4 basis point to 1.919 percent, not far below a nine-year peak.

Tuesday's yield spike also stemmed from bond dealers hedging the slate of corporate bonds they underwrite this week, analysts said.

Companies are expected to sell $35 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds this week, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters unit.

Evidence of further expansion in the factory sector will likely support the notion of steady US economic growth, perhaps allowing the Fed to increase rates up to three times in

2018.

The Institute for Supply Management will release its January report on manufacturing at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT).

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast the ISM factory index likely came in at 58.1 in December, little changed from 58.2 in November.

Investors are also awaiting clues on the path of future rate hikes in the minutes of the Dec. 12-13 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). They hope the minutes, set for release at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT), will provide a better sense of the FOMC's view on business activity before the passage of the biggest rewrite of the US tax code in 30 years.

"They want to know what the Fed was thinking about before tax reform was passed," Celente said.

Copyright Reuters, 2018

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