The global 2010 rapeseed/canola crop is likely to fall to 56.07 million tonnes from 59.87 million tonnes in 2009 after poor weather in several production regions, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. This was down by 0.7 million tonnes on Oil World's previous forecast three weeks ago.
The latest cut was largely because European Union rapeseed crops will be lower than expected, Oil World said. It now estimates the EU 2010 rapeseed crop at 19.92 million tonnes, down 1.7 million tonnes on the year. It retained its forecast of a 2010 Canadian canola crop of 10.0 million tonnes from 11.8 million tonnes last year.
World rapeseed consumption in the 2010/11 season was forecast to be above the harvest at 57.70 million tonnes, but down from 60.34 million tonnes in 2009/10 as the lower crop will reduce supplies, it said. Global rapeseed stocks were likely to be cut from 6.59 million tonnes at the end of 2009/10 to 4.96 million tonnes at the end of 2010/11, it said.
"With import requirements of the European Union rising and export supplies of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries declining, the global market will become more dependent on Canadian canola in 2010/11," it said. Canadian canola stocks are likely to be cut from 1.38 million tonnes in August 2010 to 1.0 million tonnes in July 2011 to help meet export demand, it said.