Cotton futures settled softer Friday on modest speculative sales as the market may be trying to build a base while players monitor the movement of Hurricane Emily toward southern Texas, analysts said. The trade is worried that Emily will sweep into cotton farms in the south of Texas which are almost ready for harvest.
The state is the biggest cotton growing area in the country. The New York Board of Trade's December cotton contract fell 0.39 cent to finish at 51.45 cents a lb, in a 100-point band from 51.05 to 52.05 cents. March shed 0.43 to 53.57 cents. Except for one contract, the rest lost 0.05 to 0.66 cent.
Mike Stevens of SFS Futures in Mandeville, Louisiana, said cotton traded quietly as speculators sought to nudge the market lower.
"The trade is standing by its guns, ready to buy at 51 (cents, basis December) and below," he said. Cotton may be trying to build a base but players are fretting that crops in southern Texas may be at risk from Emily.
The US National Hurricane Center said Friday Emily should pass just south of Jamaica on Saturday, slice across the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, enter the south-west Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and make landfall near the Texas-Mexico border.
Futures started near flat, crawled up to its highs for the day and then lost ground from speculative sales, brokers said.
"There were bits and pieces of spec selling," said Stevens, adding trade accounts quickly came in at the lows to prevent any further losses in futures.
Other analysts said the market still looks weak technically. "As the calendar moves forward ever closer to harvest, any rallies will be hard fought and even harder to sustain," said a report by Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for First Capitol Group in Roswell, Georgia.
Brokers Flanagan Trading Corp sees support in the December contract at 51.05 and 50.40 cents, with resistance at 51.85 and 52.85 cents.
Floor dealers said estimated volume came to 6,500 lots, down from Thursday's tally of 10,524 lots. Open interest rose 538 lots to 90,680 lots as of July 14.