US 2004 cotton plantings should decline in the US Department of Agricultures annual sowings report, but conditions across the country's cotton belt are said to be ideal for the developing crop, analysts said Monday.
A survey by Reuters showed that industry players expect US 2004 cotton sowings to reach an average of 13.73 million acres, down from the 14.4 million forecast by the USDA in its plantings intentions report at the end of March. Last year, US cotton plantings reached 13.5 million acres.
The USDA report is due out at 8:30 am EDT (1230 GMT) on Wednesday.
Carl Anderson, an economist with Texas A&M University, said a switch to soybeans should cut sowings in the US Delta and Southeast, but ample moisture in the Southwest, including the key growing state of Texas, should bump up plantings there.
With the US looking at a potential cotton crop of 18 million (480-lb) bales, the figure "keeps the pressure on futures," said Anderson.
"Were off to a great start" in the US cotton belt, added Mike Stevens of Swiss Financial Services in Mandeville, Louisiana. He said abandonment levels are down and high moisture levels in dryland farms like Texas has encouraged farmers to plant cotton.
"The US Southwest will see the largest gains with Texas up quite a bit as weather this year has allowed (planting) intentions to go forward," said Sharon Johnson, cotton expert at Frank Schneider and Co Inc in Atlanta.
Analysts said the trade belief that US cotton plantings would range from 13.8 million to 14.0 million acres appears to have been factored into NYBOT cotton futures prices.
The benchmark December cotton contract was trading 1.05 cents lower at 53.95 cents a lb at 11:15 am EDT (1515 GMT). The contract closed at 55 cents last Friday.
The USDA plantings figure is being closely watched by the trade because it will be used by the USDA when it releases its July monthly supply/demand report on July 12.
In its June supply/demand report, USDA forecast US cotton production in the 2004/05 marketing year (August/July) at 17.6 million (480-lb) bales, exports at 11.5 million bales and ending stocks at 3.9 million.