A news story in yesterday's edition of this paper said that the Board of Investment failed to live up to its plans of improving business climate in the country (See: BoI fails to make significant gains). Perhaps, it is those very failures that are being reflected in foreign direct investments (FDI) month after month.
According to latest FDI numbers released by the State Bank of Pakistan, net FDI inflow stood at about $75 million in February - a manifolds growth over the inflow of $16 million in the month before. However, on year-on-year basis, net FDI inflows dropped by 14 percent in February 2015. Total FDI inflows for the first eight months of current fiscal year now stands at $620 million about 3 percent lower than the comparable period last year.
Interestingly a bulk of FDI inflows have come from China and UAE - a little more than half actually - whereas that from other countries such as United States, the UK, Switzerland and Hong Kong have dropped substantially. Net FDI outflows from Saudi Arabia have worsened over last year, whereas all that Pak-Turkey investment brotherliness also hasn't bore any fruits as yet.
Another interesting bit is that while the number of gross FDI outflow is still smaller than gross FDI inflow, the growth in outflow has been faster than the growth in gross inflows. Central bank data shows that gross inflows in 8MFY15 rose by 26 percent year-on-year to $1756 million, whereas gross outflows jumped 52 percent year-on-year to $1136 million.
Recall that the seven month profit repatriation was already at $497 million (the number for February hasn't been released yet). Add to that a ballpark profit repatriation number of $70 million for February 2015, and 8MFY15 profit repatriation may land around $550 million. Now adjust that with the net FDI inflow of $620 million and net capital account inflows under that head starts looking like chip change.