Rouble extends gains buoyed by oil, tax period

19 May, 2011

The rouble is likely to hold its gains as "exporters will be selling today plus oil prices have risen," said Andrey Khokhlov, a dealer at Intesa bank in Moscow.

By 0650 GMT, the rouble had gained 13 kopecks to 27.96 against the dollar, heading towards its strongest level since late 2008 of 27.17, hit early this month.

Russia's top-up placement of rouble Eurobonds may also have bolstered the currency as demand for the issue, offering a yield of 7.0 percent, exceeded 60 billion roubles ($2.14 billion).

Versus the euro-dollar basket, used by the central bank to monitor the currency market, the rouble had added 6 kopecks to 33.35, Against the euro, which has risen against the dollar , the rouble was flat at 39.93.

Export-focused companies are buying rouble for dollars and euros as they prepare for tax payments that are set to drain some 600 billion roubles ($21.4 billion) from the market, according to Trust bank estimates.

The value-added tax is due by May 20 mineral extraction tax should be paid by May 25.

Brent crude was hovering around $112 per barrel, another support for the world's largest oil and gas exporter, while Russia's benchmark RTS index was adding 0.3 percent on the day, pointing at an improvement in risk perception.

However, carry-trade demand for the rouble may fall if the central bank pauses over raising rates after data showed that industry output grew at its slowest rate in 18 months in April, while weekly consumer inflation was steady at 0.1 percent.

When risk aversion fades, investors usually buy the rouble in carry trade moves, where low-yielding currencies such as the dollar are used to fund high-yielding assets such as Russian bonds.

"The figures, coupled with the previously announced below-consensus GDP growth for the first quarter, are the first contributions to a less hawkish central bank stance for the upcoming meeting in May," ING analysts wrote in a note.

             

Copyright Reuters, 2011

Read Comments