MEXICO CITY/SAO PAULO: Latin American currencies firmed Friday on bets that more US monetary stimulus will push a flood of investment into the region, with Brazil's real firming despite stepped-up intervention efforts.
The Mexican peso rose to more than a five-month high and the Chilean peso firmed to its strongest level in more than a year after Thursday's news of a third round of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve boosted riskier assets around the globe.
The Fed's previous stimulus programs since the 2008 financial crisis spurred gains in riskier assets as investors took proceeds from Fed purchases to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as Latin American local currency debt.
But those currency gains cut into the profits of local industries, which make less on their exports and are undermined by cheaper imports.
Weak growth in Brazil and Colombia could push authorities to take aggressive measures in the face of a new wave of investment flows, analysts said.
"You are going to see more pressure for these emerging market currencies to strengthen and the result of that will be more intervention from central banks," said Clyde Wardle, a strategist at HSBC in New York.
Brazil's central bank intervened twice in a span of two hours, selling currency swap contracts that mimic the purchase of dollars in the futures market.
But the Brazilian real still bid 0.34 percent stronger at the local close at 2.0196 per dollar, edging closer to the 2 per dollar level the central bank is seen defending.
Governments from Brazil to Colombia have pledged to protect their economies against fallout from the US Federal Reserve's measures. The Fed announced on Thursday plans to buy $40 billion of mortgage debt per month until the US jobs market improves. While the Fed set no dollar limits on their purchases, a Reuters poll of analysts showed they expect this round of stimulus to total about $600 billion.
Mexico, which sends nearly 80 percent of its exports to its northern neighbor, could benefit the most from stronger growth in the United States.
"Evidently, the expectation that the monetary authority is once again helping the US economy is also favoring the Mexican economy," said Rafael Camarena, an economist at Santander in Mexico City.
The Mexican peso led gains in the region, rising 0.65 percent to 12.74 per dollar.
Investors consider the Mexican central bank as the least likely to intervene in currency markets. The central bank is committed to a free-floating currency and a stronger peso could also help policymakers fight a recent spike in inflation.
Chile's peso firmed 0.45 percent to bid at 470.60 per dollar and analysts saw the odds of central bank intervention growing.
"The market is going to be careful in pushing the peso further due to the specter of central bank intervention," said Rodrigo Sarria, a trader at Celfin Capital.
Colombia's peso closed little changed after the country's finance minister suggested the central bank could step up intervention efforts as well as cut the country's benchmark interest rate to curb the appeal of the peso to yield-hungry investors.
BRAZIL STEPS UP FIGHT
Brazil has led the fight against dollar inflows in the region as Finance Minister Guido Mantega pledged to use an "arsenal" of measures to stop the real's appreciation.
Since early July, the Brazilian government has managed to keep the real trading between 2.0 and 2.1 units per dollar -- a narrow range that it considers beneficial to exporters without stoking inflation.
That range has only been maintained with aggressive central bank intervention, however.
On Thursday alone, Brazil's central bank offered to sell up to 70,000 swap contracts maturing on Nov. 1 and Dec. 3 as the real neared the level of 2 per dollar. Earlier, it had sold 36,000 swap contracts worth $1.78 billion, but that was not enough stop the real from appreciating.
"There is no mystery, what is driving the real higher is the Fed. Let's see for how long this 2-per-dollar floor will hold," said Luiz Fernando Genova, a currency trader at Daycoval bank
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