Will the voters turn up?

May 11 will see the hottest general elections in recent memory. Hottest, not just as a metaphor for all the political heat that surrounds the country, but literally.
Never since 1970, have Pakistani voters voted in the scorching heat of May. As the analyses make rounds, any chances of change are being tied up with how the voter turnout turns out on the election day. There seems to be a consensus that the turnout is likely to be higher than what it has been in the past two decades.
The numbers back up the perception. An opinion poll on voting intentions by Gallup Pakistan released yesterday tells that 59 percent respondents have shown a very high intention of voting on the Election day. This is a 700 bps increase in just over a month, compared to the same poll conducted by the same organisation a month ago. Another 28 percent respondents fall in the somewhat chance of voting intention.
A similar poll released a week prior to the 2008 General Elections revealed 52 percent respondents showing high intentions to vote. That said the actual turnout stood at only 44.4 percent, showing that those amongst the high intention voters may not actually turn up on the Election Day.
The most surprising aspect of the poll is the urban-rural divide. Rural registered voters have always held high intentions of voting, evident from 64 percent and 62 percent falling in high intention category in 2013 and 2008 polls, respectively. What has changed drastically is the urban intention, which has gone up from just 33 percent in 2008 to a staggering 49 percent in 2013.
Needless to say, the emergence of PTI and the rallying youth as well as awareness by media have played a crucial role in enticing more people to think about exercising their voting right.
The last time, voter turnout crossed 50 percent was 28 years ago in 1985. There is no data that supports the notion of extreme weather having an impact on actual turnout. But thats because General Election in Pakistan have never been held in such high temperatures.
In the previous nine elections from 1970 to 2008, the average nationwide temperature has stayed at a pretty comfortable 26.4 degrees centigrade. May 11 forecast tells 40 degrees. And that is severe. A lot of other variables have changed but the scorching heat will be a real test of character of the new voter that some parties are so badly banking on.
Will the voters come out in numbers in this heat? Or will they prefer sitting back enjoying a rare blessing of three load-shedding-free days? Thats an interesting question never been posed before the voters.
Rationale choice theory suggests that a self-interested voter might as well watch TV at home or hit the beach, since, probabilistically speaking, the marginal impact of his/her individual vote may well be insignificant. But then, self-interest when properly understood lies in collective interest of the nation.