MANNHEIM: German analyst and investor morale fell to its lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years in August, a survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting Europe's largest economy is running out of steam in the third quarter.
Mannheim-based think tank ZEW's monthly survey of economic sentiment fell for an eighth consecutive month to 8.6 in August, its lowest since December 2012, as the crisis in Ukraine took its toll.
The reading, which was way off the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for a reading of 18.2, sent the euro to a session low against the dollar and caused Bund futures to rise.
Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING, said the survey showed that "fear is back" and available data suggested the economy stagnated in April-June period.
"Today's ZEW sends a worrying signal that the growth performance in the second quarter could suddenly morph from a one-off into an undesired trend," he said.
Data due out on Thursday is expected to show the economy did not grow in the second quarter, according to the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll, but a growing number of economists say it could even contract for the first time since late 2012.
The economy grew at its fastest pace in three years at the start of 2014 but that was mainly due to mild weather and recent data has shown industrial orders falling and business sentiment worsening while output and exports have risen only modestly and the OECD has said the economy is losing steam.
ZEW said tensions abroad were likely behind the fall in economic sentiment and said weak industrial output and orders pointed to German companies investing significantly less as they are unsure of their ability to sell in the current climate.
"Since the economy in the euro zone is not gaining momentum either, the signs are that economic growth in Germany will be weaker in 2014 than expected," ZEW said in a statement.
The government has predicted growth of 1.8 percent for this year.
A gauge of current conditions tumbled to 44.3 from 61.8 in July, undershooting the consensus forecast for a reading of 55.5.
The index was based on a survey of 222 analysts and investors, and conducted between July 28 and August 11, ZEW said.
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