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Markets

Turkish lira, Mongolian bonds lead emerging market gains

Published February 20, 2017 Updated February 20, 2017 10:22am

imageLONDON: Turkey's lira hit the strongest level in more than six weeks against the dollar and Mongolian bonds soared after a $5.5 billion IMF-led bailout for the country, outperforming broader emerging markets.

MSCI's emerging index rose 0.2 percent, but struggled to get close to 1-1/2 year highs hit last week after Friday's 0.7 percent fall.

Meanwhile, stronger commodity prices and investors seeking higher rewards lifted some currencies as investors prepared for speeches by US Federal Reserve policymakers that could provide further clues on the future path of interest rates.

Speculation the Fed could hike as soon as March has generally underpinned the dollar and pressured some emerging currencies, though Monday trading was muted with US markets closed for Presidents Day.

Turkey's lira strengthened 0.3 percent in its second day of gains, shrugging off data showing consumer confidence declining in February, though the gains later faded.

"Two things are supporting emerging market currencies: One is the yield and the other is volatility, and - as long as volatility remains low and yields remain high - the carry trade continues and this attracts flows into lira, rouble and other high yielders," said Cristian Maggio at TD Securities.

Higher oil prices and ratings agency Moody's updating its outlook on Moscow's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' propelled Russia's rouble 0.6 percent higher against the dollar.

"It signals that the acute phase of the Russian crisis is over and none of the agencies expect further deterioration on the macro and creditworthiness front," Maggio added.

But South Africa's rand slipped 0.6 percent to its weakest level in nearly a week, with investors nervous before Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan's budget speech on Wednesday amid renewed talk of a cabinet reshuffle.

Gordhan may target taxes on income, alcohol and tobacco in the budget to reassure rating agencies that he will gradually rein in the deficit, a Reuters poll found.

Asian currencies were mostly weaker, with the Philippine peso hitting its lowest in more than a decade after crashing through the psychologically key 50-per-dollar level

Thailand's baht also slipped after data showed the economy expanded less than expected in the last quarter of 2016, indicating recovery will remain slow.

Meanwhile, Mongolian dollar bonds rose across the curve after the country staved off default risk, clinching a $5.5 billion loan package with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, Beijing and other lenders.

Across emerging Europe, Serbia's dinar firmed 0.15 percent after Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic agreed to be the presidential candidate of his centre-right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in an election tentatively slated for April.

Copyright Reuters, 2017

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