KIEV: Fears may be rising in the West that eastern Ukraine could be plunged back into all-out conflict but a new offensive by pro-Russian forces is unlikely any time soon, analysts said Thursday.
The amount of military hardware being moved into the war-torn region is insufficient for a major operation, which would probably not be launched during Ukraine's harsh winter, experts told AFP.
Instead, the deployments may be designed to deter Ukraine from launching a bid to reclaim the territories or send a message to a domestic audience in Russia.
"There is a positional war of attrition going on. Any large-scale offensives are highly unlikely," said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst based in Moscow.
"For a major operation, you need thousands of tanks. There are a lot less than that -- and mainly just artillery."
In recent days, a string of Western powers have spoken out over fears that Russia is sending reinforcements to eastern Ukraine, parts of which have been taken over by separatists loyal to Moscow.
The Kremlin denies any involvement in the conflict but supports the rebels politically. A nominal ceasefire punctuated by frequent spells of fighting has been in place in eastern Ukraine since September.
NATO's commander in Europe, US General Philip Breedlove, said Wednesday that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" were entering Ukraine.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has warned that violence could get worse and is concerned about tanks and heavy weaponry witnessed by its observers moving through east Ukrainian territory held by separatists.
And Ukraine's government says it is preparing for "combat operations".
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