TOKYO: Japan's most significant fiscal reform in years - a planned increase in the country's sales tax - could be delayed or watered down in a move that might rattle financial markets and amount to an own goal for the prime minister.
Despite holding the strongest political mandate of any prime minister in years, there are signs Shinzo Abe is seriously rethinking the plan out of concern it could derail a nascent economic recovery he has crafted with an aggressive policy mix, dubbed Abenomics.
Abe says he will decide in the autumn whether to proceed with the first part of the two-stage plan after gauging the state of the economic recovery, especially GDP data that is due on Sept 9. The tax, similar to general sales tax and value added tax in other countries, is due to rise to 8 percent in April 2014 and then 10 percent in 2015.
Abe does not want to raise the tax, given the likely economic and political repercussions, but he understands the risks of upsetting the markets by giving the appearance of backtracking on promised reform, said a person involved in crafting economic policies. At 5 percent, Japan and Canada have the lowest equivalent consumption taxes in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD data shows.
The stakes in Japan are high. The tax hike was passed into law last year with the support of Abe's current coalition parties and the previous government and is meant to be the first step toward repairing Japan's tattered finances. However, the law also requires the government to judge the economic conditions before giving the final go ahead.
Reneging on fiscal reform could hit investor confidence, which has allowed Tokyo to borrow money cheaply even though its $5 trillion public debt, well over twice the nation's annual economic output, is the heaviest burden in the industrial world.
At the same time, Abe has stressed that his top priority is to rouse Japan from 15 years of deflation and tepid growth through his Abenomics programme of heavy government spending, massive monetary easing and promises of a longer-term growth strategy.
Abe himself admitted the thorny dilemma just hours after scoring a landslide win in upper house elections on July 21 that gave his ruling bloc a clear parliamentary majority.
"It will be a difficult decision," he said of the looming tax choice.
"The economy is just starting to recover and now is the best chance for Japan to emerge from deflation," Abe said. "I don't want to lose this chance. At the same time, markets are watching (our progress) on Japan's fiscal reform."
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