The Russian rouble retreated on Monday as oil fell back below $50 per barrel and a cautious mood reigned on global markets after a rally in oil and stocks at the end of last week. At 0745 GMT, the rouble was 2 percent weaker against the dollar at 66.69 and down 2.1 percent to 74.78 versus the euro. The rouble had fallen to a 2015 low of 71.69 per dollar a week ago during the global market sell-off, but it rallied strongly in the second half of the week as global fears eased.
International oil benchmark Brent was down 1.7 percent to $49.2 per barrel on Monday, after soaring 14 percent on Thursday and Friday. Analysts at Rosbank said that the rouble is also being restrained by the possibility the US might still raise interest rates as early as next month. Global markets are also cautious before official Chinese manufacturing data on Tuesday, which will be closely watched for confirmation of fears about a slowing Chinese economy.
However, TeleTrade analyst Anastasia Ignatenko said in a note that the rouble's rise may continue this week as oil has broken several resistance levels on the way up, making a further firming of the oil price likely. Russian share indexes moved in line with the rouble on Monday, registering losses in dollar terms but remaining flat in rouble terms. The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 2 percent to 813 points, while the rouble-based MICEX was 0.1 percent higher at 1,721 points.
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