SORRISO: The latest forecasts favor Brazil's expected record soybean crop as they predict rain will move out of the center-west region to allow the harvest to continue and move to the south where dry fields need the moisture.
Local crop analysts Celeres said on Monday that Brazil had harvested 3 percent of the crop as of last week, with the bulk of the harvest coming from the top two producing states of Mato Grosso and Parana -- at 6 percent and 5 percent respectively.
Last year at this time, Mato Grosso had collected 3 percent and Parana 4 percent of its crop, Celeres said in its weekly report.
Brazil is forecast to surpass the United States as the No. 1 exporter and producer of soybeans this season, with a record 85-million-tonne crop which has already begun to be harvested in the top soy growing state Mato Grosso.
Producers in the state and surrounding center-west region have been concerned over occasional delays in the harvest caused by rain. Between 29 and 47 millimeters fell across the state's growing areas on the weekend, weather forecaster Somar said.
But Daniel Latorraca Ferreira, a coordinator at the Mato Grosso state farm economics institute Imea, said he saw "no delay in harvest even with big rains."
Mato Grosso, which is due to harvest a record 24 million tonnes, is still between 7 and 30 percent shy of its average January rainfall numbers and much of the state's crop will not mature for harvest until next month, analysts said, so the rain will help the still maturing plants.
According to Celeres, 21 percent of the crop is less than a month away from harvest, which is one percentage point away from last year this time and well ahead of the 11 percent in that state on average for this time of year.
If dos Santos' expectations for a wet February come to pass, it could be a mixed blessing for Brazil's winter corn crop that farmers plant as soon as the summer soy crop is harvested. If rains slow the soy harvest, the corn may miss the tail end of the rainy season, but the moisture will help young corn develop.
Paulo Triches, a mid-sized producer in the region, reported that he had harvested 10 percent of his soy crop and "all was well, like last year."
He reported that he and other producers had locked in good prices in recent months to deliver early harvested beans to grain crushers on the local market where stocks are very low.
Triches said soy "will start flowing abroad soon. There is already soy heading for the port. There is a struggle for space there between soy and corn."
Brazil is still trying to ship last year's record corn harvest to meet strong demand left by the drought in the farm belt of the United States.
RAIN HEADS SOUTH
Grain traders had been watching the dry weather over the past two weeks in Brazil's No. 2 and No. 3 soybean states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, but both states started off January with enough rain to carry them through the dry spell.
Rio Grande do Sul has already exceeded its monthly average for January rainfall. Parana is still 39 percent shy of average moisture for the month.
Forecaster Somar said in its soy weather bulletin on Monday that between Feb. 2 and Feb. 6, the distribution of rains will totally change.
"Precipitation will ease in the center-west, allowing harvesting to resume, while rain will return to the south to favor the crop's development," the forecaster said.
Rio Grande do Sul has been very hot and dry, which quickly saps moisture from the soil and begins to reduce the productive potential of the crop when dry conditions persist. Until now however, plants' thick foliage has helped limit evaporation of soil moisture.
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