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US 10-year notes surge as Obama gains momentum in vote

treasurySINGAPORE: US 10-year Treasuries rose on Wednesday as traders ramped up bets that President Barack Obama would be re-elected as the presidential election began drawing to a close.


Obama rolled up victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, limiting Republican challenger Mitt Romney's path to victory. Early vote counting also showed Obama leading in the critical battleground state of Ohio, although the result there was too close to call.


Ten-year Treasuries climbed 21/32 in price to yield 1.677 percent, down about 7 basis points from late US trade on Tuesday.


Three-year bonds surged more than a full point. The 30-year yield stood at 2.860 percent, down about 6 basis points from late US trade.


"It looks like we have status quo," said Rob Ryan, director of markets strategy, Asia-Pacific for RBS in Singapore.


Tuesday's US elections seemed likely to result in a Democratic President and a Republican House of Representatives, Ryan said.


CNN projected that the Republicans would keep control of the US House of Representatives.


"We head into the fiscal cliff, trying to find compromise where it wasn't possible before," Ryan said.


The US economy faces a real threat of a renewed recession next year depending on how Washington deals with the fiscal cliff -- about $600 billion in government spending cuts and higher taxes that will be enacted next year if Congress can't agree on new arrangements.


A win by Obama may also make it easier for the US Federal Reserve to stay the course on monetary policy.


Since many top Republicans have been critical of the US Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary stimulus, there has been market speculation that the Fed might be more likely to end its accommodative monetary policy earlier if Romney were to be elected president rather than if Obama wins.


Copyright Reuters, 2012


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