LONDON: Slumping economies and the euro zone's stewing sovereign debt crisis will drain the value of its currency against the dollar over the next 12 months, according to a Reuters poll.
The latest survey of more than 60 economists and foreign exchange strategists, taken this week, showed the euro declining to $1.25 in 12 month's time, from its current level around $1.288.
Despite having risen more than 3 percent since September, there was little conviction among respondents the euro would be able to sustain its strength against the dollar, itself under pressure from US Federal Reserve stimulus.
Recent business surveys portray little hope the euro zone economy will return to growth soon, while there remains a risk the euro zone debt crisis will flare up again, which would further sap the euro against the dollar.
Indeed, the euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar on Friday, pushing the dollar index to its highest level since Sept. 11, and the euro to its lowest since Oct 11.
"The euro has rallied against its main peers as markets view the tail risks of the (sovereign debt) crisis have reduced," said Jeavon Lolay, global economist at Lloyds Bank, in a note.
"However, our forecasts show the euro paring back its gains in the year ahead as euro area tensions intensify."
Overall, the poll showed the euro at $1.30 in a month's time, $1.28 in three months, $1.27 in six months and $1.25 in 12.
While the outlook was little changed compared with the last poll, the range of forecasts shifted slightly higher to reflect recent strength in the euro.
Both the minimum and maximum forecasts hit a six-month high in November, and the range narrowed slightly compared with last month too.
It looks unlikely the forecasts will shift higher again next month. Currency speculators increased their bets against the euro in October and increased their net short position in the latest week according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
A Reuters poll earlier this week suggested the European Central Bank will cut interest rates from 0.75 to 0.5 percent, a new record low, early next year.
That would likely act as a further, if modest, depressant for the euro.
Against the pound, analysts say the British currency will hold strong, given widespread expectations its economy is on a slightly more solid footing than the euro zone, even if Britain is highly dependent on exporting to the 17-member currency bloc.
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