NEW YORK: US long-dated Treasury yields fell from four-week highs on Monday in choppy trading, ahead of US data in a holiday-shortened week that will give some guidance on whether the world's largest economy could tip into recession in the near future.
Financial markets are closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
After hitting a roughly 14-month low around late March, US benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields have risen about 17 and 16 basis points respectively.
"I think you will see that by the end of the week all these fears about a near-term recession that was so prevalent a few months ago will largely vanish," Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York, said.
"For now, we're sort of in a standstill until we see how the data this week turns out," he added.
US retail sales and housing data are due this week and Shipley believes those numbers will show a far more stable economy than many initially thought.
Shipley said that the Treasury market has lagged the recovery seen in other markets such as stocks and commodities fueled by improved sentiment about US economic prospects. In due course, US yields will rise, he added.
Due to the short week, liquidity and activity are likely on the light side, analysts said.
"As a result, it follows that we will continue to monitor risk asset performance to provide incremental trading guidance for the Treasury market, at least for the moment," BMO Capital Markets said in a research note.
"In that vein, the start to earnings season was rather impressive as the banks appear to be doing relatively well, adding to some upward pressure on the equity market as the S&P 500 nears a return to record levels," it added.
In late morning trading, US 10-year note yields slipped to 2.557%, down from 2.56% late on Friday.
Yields on US 30-year bonds were also lower at 2.967% , down from 2.971% on Friday.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.