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Markets

Prices jump on forecast for colder weather

Published Updated

British prompt natural gas prices jumped on Wednesday on forecasts for colder weather, recovering from steep falls during the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

* Within-day gas rose 3.5 pence, or 6.8 percent, to 55 pence per therm at 0840 GMT

* Day-ahead gas was up 1.0 pence at 59.25 pence per therm

* Within-day prices had fallen 24 percent between Dec. 24 and New Year's Eve as industrial demand fell during the holiday period and the weather remained broadly temperate

* The average temperature forecast for the day was slashed by 5.3 degrees Celsius to 3.1 degrees

* Average temperatures are expected to drop further on Thursday, to 1.6 degrees Celsius

* As a result, demand for residential gas, used primarily in heating homes, has jumped to 225 million cubic metres (mcm)on Wednesday from 165 mcm on Monday

* Nevertheless, the gas system was oversupplied, with demand forecast at 310.4 mcm per day and flows seen at 338.4 mcm, National Grid data showed

* Norwegian gas flows to Britain were up 5 mcm at 106 mcm while British offshore gas production was also 5 mcm higher at 113 mcm

* Liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout rates are also expected to rise to 51 mcm, 13 mcm higher than Monday

* One LNG tanker arrived on Monday with another expected Sunday and one more is expected on Tuesday

* Peak wind generation however was low at 3.7 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday and 1.6 GW on Thursday compared with metred capacity of 12 GW and generation levels above 9 GW earlier this week

* The Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactor went offline on Wednesday for planned maintenance work, a week earlier than planned

* This brings the capacity of reactors offline to 2.6 GW of about 9 GW overall

* Day-ahead Dutch gas at the TTF hub rose 0.45 euro to 21.50 euros per megawatt hour

* The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract rose 0.6 euro to 25.61 euros per tonne

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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