LONDON: Sterling climbed versus the dollar on Thursday, returning towards 12-week highs against a US currency pegged back by expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates any time soon.
Gains in the pound were capped, though, after a YouGov poll for the Times showed opponents of Britain's European Union membership edging into the lead in the run-up to a June 23 referendum on the issue, despite an intervention on the "In" side by US President Barack Obama.
The online survey, taken on Monday and Tuesday, showed support for the "Out" campaign had risen 3 percentage points to 42 percent since a similar survey on April 12-14, while the number of undecided had fallen, leaving support for the "In" campaign up 1 percentage point at 41 percent.
Despite the poll, bookmakers' odds have consistently shown a vote for "Remain" the most likely outcome of the ballot, with betting website Betfair putting the chances of a Brexit at around just 30 percent. Those odds, closely watched by investors, have lent support to the pound.
"With 8 weeks to go the momentum does seem to be with the 'Remain' campaign," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ currency strategist Derek Halpenny.
"So far it has been a relatively orderly depreciation. There is a fair chance that investors will get a bit more nervous in the run-in." Sterling rose 0.3 percent on the day to $1.4586, not far from a 12-week high of $1.4640 struck on Tuesday.
The euro was slightly lower at 77.65 pence. Halpenny also noted that indicators his bank looks at, on Japanese institutional and retail investors, suggested they had so far been relatively sanguine on the outcome of the vote.
Data shows retail currency traders in Japan have actually added to bets on sterling to rise against the yen as the pound has fallen in the past six months, he said.
The dollar was lower across the board after the Federal Open Market Committee hinted it was in no hurry to tighten monetary policy amid an apparent slowdown in the US economy.
"Given that first quarter US data have been soft overall, we will stick to our guns and support that the Fed will raise rates only once this year, with September and December being the most likely contenders," said Sakis Paraskevov, senior analyst at IronFx Global.
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