JOHANNESBURG: The rand is seen rebounding five percent against the dollar in 12 months as violent wildcat strikes in South Africa's mines taper off and the global economy improves, a Reuters poll found on Friday.
With most strikers in gold and platinum mines returning to work after threats of dismissal and some sweeteners on pay, the rand is expected to strengthen in the medium term.
A median among more than 30 strategists and economists forecast the rand to recover more than five percent to 8.20 per dollar in a year, responding to ultra loose monetary efforts from the world's major central banks.
Although gold miners have returned to work, some strikers at world No. 1 platinum producer Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) are still refusing to go back to work, despite a company offer to reinstate them.
"The expectation is that conditions in South Africa do not really worsen from a labour business perspective and things calm down," said Benjamin Reitzes, economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Globally, major central banks have flooded the market with liquidity through stimulus packages to revive their respective economies, to the extent that the local bourse's Top-40 and All-Share indices hit record highs on Friday.
But the rand has fallen almost 7 percent since the start of the year. Much depends on a lasting solution to labour relations problems in South Africa's vital mining sector.
"I think in the medium to longer term, we would expect the rand to shed some of those localized risk factors and start once again taking notice of a more risk-friendly global environment," said Mike Keenan, strategist at Absa Capital.
Also of concern is South Africa's wide current account deficit, exacerbated by lower exports due to the mining stoppages and lacklustre demand from crisis-hit Europe, its main trading partner.
The rand is seen making modest gains in a month, at 8.60 per dollar, strengthening to 8.40 in six months. It is seen at 8.55 at the end of January once uncertainty over the ruling African National congress's crucial elective conference is wrapped up in December.
President Jacob Zuma will seek re-election to lead the ANC for a second five-year term as national president in 2014.
Growth in Africa's largest economy is expected to be lower this year. The Treasury cut its 2012 growth forecast to 2.5 percent from the 2.7 percent of earlier in the year, in line with the median of the Reuters Econometer.
Investors are also weary of recent downgrades by Moody's and S&P, which eroded confidence in South Africa's rand and its government bonds.
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