Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
COMMERZBANK
EURO/DOLLAR: "We note that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new high. While this reflects a slight loss of upside momentum it has not yet provoked reversal. Our central forecast remains for the rally to extend to $1.3978/1.4000. This is where the 78.6 per cent retracement and psychological resistance meet."
DOLLAR/YEN: "USD/JPY charted an inside day yesterday and this reflects a loss of downside momentum. The market is approaching stronger support in the 81.30/80.93 yen zone (4-month support line, Fibonacci retracement and this year's low). We look for this to hold and for signs of reversal down here. A rally to 82.97/83.01 (55 day ma and the channel resistance) is favoured, but only a close above here will be capable of re-engaging upside interest."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "GBP/USD has tested, but has yet to clear on a closing basis the 2009-2011 downtrend at $1.6190. It is clearly exposed and while we would allow for this to be eroded, upside scope is viewed as limited. Overhead resistance is intense - we have the $1.6300/2010 high, the $1.6425 double Fibonacci retracement and the $1.6475 2007-2011 downtrend. So we now view the upside as now limited and expect to see failure in the mid $1.60 area."
EURO/YEN: "EUR/JPY held steady and remains in the middle of the long term downtrend line has led to failure range, which is limited by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October to January decline at 111.25 yen and the 2009-2011 downtrend line at 113.77. We are neutral."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF is showing embryonic signs of recovery ahead of the 0.9318/00 francs support area (15 year support line and December low).
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