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Markets

Sugar consolidates but surplus forecasts weigh

Published December 19, 2016 Updated December 19, 2016 07:22pm

imageLONDON: Raw sugar futures edged up on Monday, consolidating ahead of the holiday season, despite an outlook which remained bearish on strong supply. March raw sugar futures were up 0.15 cents, or 0.8 percent, at 18.37 cents a pound, at 1210 GMT.

Funds have been liquidating long positions, reducing the net long by almost 200,000 lots in the past two months. Raws and white sugar futures hit six-month lows last week.

"Today might be a correction of last week's movements," analyst Michaela Kuhl at Commerzbank said. "But we think prices will not recover markedly -- the main reason being that we will not see a deficit next season."

Forecasts of a small global sugar surplus, and strong production data from top cane producer Brazil have driven prices down. The weakening Brazilian real has contributed to depressed prices.

Speculators cut their net long position in sugar again in the week to Dec. 13, to 136,190 contracts, their smallest bullish bet since April, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

March white sugar futures were up $1.1, or 0.2 percent, at $493.50 per tonne.

Cocoa futures were higher, boosted partly by news that speculators had increased further an already large short position, prompting some to expect there may be scope for a short-term rebound in prices.

May New York cocoa was up $19, or 0.85 percent, at $2,257 a tonne. The second position has recovered some ground after dipping to a low of $2,144 a week ago, its weakest since July 2013.

Speculators boosted bearish bets on cocoa to a 4-1/2 year high in the week to Dec. 13, US CFTC data showed on Friday. Dealers said the scope for further losses may also be limited after a prolonged slide, with the market on course to fall nearly 30 percent in 2016.

The decline has been driven by the prospect of a global surplus in 2016/17 and the strong current pace of port arrivals in top producer Ivory Coast.

"It feels as though a lot of the move has happened. The story of (global) surplus, of good arrivals, is the reason we are where we are," one dealer said.

May London cocoa was up 12 pounds, or 0.7 percent, at 1,836 pounds a tonne.

March robusta was up $7, or 0.3 percent, at $2,090 a tonne. March arabica coffee rose 0.95 cent, or 0.7 percent, to $1.4340 per lb.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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