What happens when a global investment bank gets its computers to run 10,000 virtual tournaments to guesstimate who is going to bring home the World Cup? Germany win again. Switzerland's UBS has released its quadrennial report into the best bet punters can make during the most watched sports event in the world.
The 29-page analysis is not kind to the hosts. Russia are given a 1.6 percent chance of winning the football extravaganza when it kicks in a month - which puts them one spot below Mexico and Switzerland.
Defending champions Germany come out tops with a 24 percent chance of claiming the trophy while Brazil and Spain round out the top three. "It is almost a given that the new champion will come from either Europe or Latin America," UBS said. "The likelihood of a champion from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, or North America is almost nil." The report is part a tongue-and-cheek look at the June 14 to July 15 competition and part a serious analysis of Russia's investment climate.
It includes Italy in its permutations despite the four-time winners failing to make their first final since 1958.
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