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Markets

Won rises; Asia FX up on short-covering, China GDP

Published January 17, 2012 Updated January 17, 2012 08:00am

 SINGAPORE: Most emerging Asian currencies rose on Tuesday, buoyed by short-covering and foreign buying of regional stocks as slightly better-than-expected Chinese growth data helped to ease concerns that the European debt crisis was hurting the global economy.

Currency players were little fazed by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the euro zone's rescue fund, which had been widely expected, while welcoming a firm bond sale by France on Monday.

China's economy expanded by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, topping forecasts for 8.7 percent growth and boosting appetite for riskier assets.

However, the growth rate was the slowest in two and a half years, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing by Beijing to boost the world's No.2 economy.

Elsewhere in the region, Singapore reported exports last month rose more than expected.

Still, investors were reluctant to chase emerging Asian currencies too aggressively on sustained worries about the two-year old euro zone's debt crisis, which looks set to push much of the continent into recession early in 2012.

Market players are keeping a close eye on talks between Greece and private sector creditors on a debt swap deal, which broke down last week but were expected to resume on Wednesday.

With persistent worries about Europe, inflows to emerging Asian may slow, some analysts said.

Some regional units such as the Indian rupee have benefited from inflows so far this year after a wave of risk aversion sparked a sharp pull-back in emerging currencies in late 2011.

"We have seen government bond yields coming down by different degrees on either safe haven flows or strengthening rate cut expectations," said Andy Ji, Asian currency strategist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Singapore.

The Singapore dollar may get support from some safe haven flows as the city-state maintains a triple-A rating, Ji said.

"But yields are already low, hence there is not much space there. In general, inflows are unlikely to sustain in the first half on the downbeat outlook," Ji said, adding he still prefered buying dollar against emerging Asian currencies on dips.

A senior dealer at a Malaysian bank in Kuala Lumpur said he would buy emerging Asian currencies, but only on dips.

Foreign investors have used existing money rather than bringing fresh funds to buy Malaysian bonds, he said.

"It is not a time for cross-border investments yet as things are still very uncertain," the dealer said.

WON

Dollar/won slid as foreign investors extended their buying streak to a sixth consecutive session, scooping up a combined 1.32 trillion won ($1.14 billion).

Exporters also sold it for settlements before the Lunar New Year holidays, while offshore funds and local speculators cleared long positions.

But importers bought the pair near technical support around 1,145. There are three daily bottoms in the 1,144.5-1,145.0 area with the 55-day moving average at 1,144.0. If the support levels are cleared, it may head to a 100-day moving average at 1,138.1.

"With some signs of easing worries about the euro zone, the won, along with other Asian currencies, may strengthen more. But importers' dollar demand is continuously strong and that will slow down the won's appreciation," said a senior foreign bank dealer in Seoul.

PHILIPPINE PESO

Dollar/Philippine peso fell below a trendline support around 43.75 as investors cleared long positions, dealers said.

The pair came under more pressure as stronger-than-expected China's growth data fuelled gains in emerging Asian currencies.

The pair may head to 43.60, the low of this year. If the level is broken, it may slide to 43.40, the low of December 23.

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

US dollar/Singapore dollar slipped on healthy exports data and a rise in the euro.

But investors bought the pair on dips, especially around 1.2850 as they are worried about the euro may lose steam and turn lower on any negative news.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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