Colombia central bank to hold rate for remainder of 2018

BOGOTA: Colombia's central bank board will hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent at its June meeting because of an uptick in inflation expectations, analysts said in a Reuters survey on Friday,

The hold in the rate will likely extend for the remainder of 2018, thirteen of the 21 analysts surveyed said. The bank has not cut the rate since January but trimmed 325 basis points during its recent expansionary cycle. Borrowing costs are now at the lowest since August 2015.

Sixteen of those polled predict a hold at the meeting, while five expect the seven-members will cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent.

Inflation was up 0.46 percent in April, well above analysts' prediction of a 0.28 percent increase. The 12-month figure was 3.13 percent, within the bank's 2 percent to 4 percent target range but above its ideal rate of 3 percent.

"April's inflationary surprise has reduced the probability of a rate cut in June," said Fabio Nieto, analyst at Banco Agrario.

Those polled raised their inflation expectations for the close of 2018 to 3.30 percent, from 3.22 percent in April's survey. For 2019 their estimates were up to 3.28 percent, compared to 3.17 percent in the previous poll.

Some analysts have not ruled out a reduction in borrowing costs because of slow economic growth. The government predicts expansion of 2.7 percent, compared with 1.8 percent last year.

"Some parts of GDP show that the economy is still weak, which, with a surprise fall in inflation, could support a last cut," said Sergio Olarte, chief economist for Colombia at BTG Pactual.

Analysts kept their estimates for economic growth for this year and next steady at 2.5 percent and 3 percent respectively. Nearly all analysts predict rate rises in 2019.