The high-flying Australian and New dollar dollars are seen holding on to most of their gains in 2012, despite expectations for more interest rate cuts in Australia. A Reuters poll of around 47 analysts showed the Australian dollar is initially likely to dip to parity by the end of the year, from its current level near $1.0400. It is then expected to recover to $1.0300 in 12 months.
The Aussie is down 1.6 percent so far in November, mostly due to the European debt crisis. The commodity currency has had a roller coaster ride of late, showing heavy losses of nearly 10 percent one month, before staging a recovery of the same magnitude the following month. It is up 1.2 percent this year.
Last week, Australia's central bank cut its cash rate for the first time in over two years, citing risks from the European debt crisis and a more benign inflation outlook at home. Still, with a cash rate at 4.5 percent, Australia has one of the highest rates in the developed world and has room to cut further should it need to stimulate growth, unlikely many of its peers.
A survey of around 41 analysts showed a similar path for the New Zealand dollar, which has lost nearly 11 percent since hitting a 30-year peak of $0.8842 in August. The currency is seen at $0.8000 by the end of the year, before recovering to $0.8100 in a year. It is currently around $0.8000, up nearly 2 percent this year.
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