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Markets

Russian rouble supported by taxes, weak oil weighs

Published February 17, 2016 Updated February 17, 2016 09:02am

imageMOSCOW: The Russian rouble firmed slightly against the dollar early on Wednesday, with exporters selling foreign currency outweighing worries about falling oil prices.

At 0747 GMT, the rouble was 0.2 percent stronger against the dollar at 77.76 but lost 0.2 percent to trade at 86.88 versus the euro.

Local exporters converted a portion of their foreign-currency revenues to pay monthly taxes, estimated by analysts at between 725 billion roubles ($9.30 billion) to 1.275 trillion roubles before the end of the month.

But worries about oil, Russia's main export, persisted. Brent crude oil was down 1 percent at around $31.9 a barrel, as the market was unimpressed by a deal on Tuesday by world oil producers to freeze output.

Oil producers including Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed in Doha to freeze oil production at January levels, provided other oil exporters such as Iran joined in.

"We continue to believe that there is little chance of any serious agreement between OPEC and independent producers as long as there is the real threat posed by producers of shale oil and supplies from Iran," analysts at ING wrote in a note.

They also said Russia's oil output would decline naturally and that therefore Moscow's declarations of a production freeze were nothing but a "verbal intervention".

"As a result, the 'oil roller coaster' on the rouble is likely to continue," they wrote.

Analysts at ForexClub said that should Iran come aboard on the Doha deal and agree to freeze output, Brent could climb back to $34 per barrel, which could lead to the rouble firming to around 76.30 per dollar.

The stronger rouble weakened the rouble-based MICEX index, which traded 0.1 percent lower at 1,752 points. The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.2 percent at 710 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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