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Markets

A$ & NZ$ edge up after no surprises by RBA

Published Updated

imageSYDNEY/WELLINGTON: The Australian dollar inched up on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the currency was high historically, but refrained from trying to talk it down as some market watchers had speculated.

The Aussie rose to $0.9270, from $0.9244 in early trade, pulling closer to a high of $0.9321 set on Monday. It was, however, still stuck in a familiar $0.9203-$0.9410 band, a range it has been unable to escape since late March.

As expected, the central bank left its cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.5 percent for a ninth straight policy meeting and reiterated its outlook was for a period of steady policy.

Some had anticipated the central bank would sound more alarmed at the currency's strength given weakness in the price of iron ore, the country's biggest export earner. The mineral has shed 31 percent this year to be at levels not seen in nearly two years.

"People had expected a more dovish tone so the Aussie got squeezed higher," said Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Also underpinning the Aussie was positive news on Australia's current account deficit, which more than halved to A$5.7 billion in the first quarter.

Net exports also added a huge 1.4 percentage points to economic growth in the quarter, well above forecasts and the largest contribution in five years.

That in turn suggested the official report on gross domestic product (GDP) due on Wednesday could show faster growth than the 0.9 percent currently forecasted.

Solid support was seen around $0.9200/10 where traders cite large options expiring later on Tuesday, with resistance at $0.9270/80.

Aussie strength dragged the New Zealand dollar higher. It was last at $0.8460, from $0.8449 in early trade, but still near three-month lows touched Monday.

The kiwi was on the back foot against most major currencies, plumbing a three-month trough against a currency basket around 78.94.

The kiwi has sunk roughly 4 percent against the greenback in the past month, retreating from a 2-1/2-year high of $0.8779 hit in early May.

Also weighing on the kiwi are an ongoing slide in global prices for dairy products, New Zealand's biggest export product, and uncertainty about the pace of interest rate rises in the country later in the year.

"There's a bit of an unwind as markets in general become more orderly," said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX sales at ASB Bank in Auckland.

"The kiwi's heading towards the bottom end of the $0.8300-$0.8800 range ... There's an overhang of longs which still haven't gotten out."

A further fall in dairy prices at a global auction later in the day would be a further negative for the currency.

Technical support was put at $0.8416, the 50 percent retracement of the kiwi's February-May rally. Resistance lay at $0.8482, its 100-day moving average.

New Zealand government bonds slipped, taking yields on longer dated maturities 1.5 basis points higher.

Australian government bond futures retreated from recent multi-month peaks, with the three-year bond contract down 3 ticks at 97.210.

The 10-year contract eased 6 ticks to 96.280, leading to a steepening of the yield curve.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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