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Markets

Stocks and oil rally, euro slips on ECB view

Published Updated

World-stockNEW YORK: US stocks bounced back on Thursday after a six-day slide and oil prices jumped on supply concerns, while the euro fell after the European Central Bank kept its inflation forecast for next year unchanged.

Financial and energy stocks led the rally on Wall Street, which pushed the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 up 1 percent at midday. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.5 percent, matching the 0.5 percent gain in world stocks as measured by the MSCI index.

US crude oil futures jumped above $102 a barrel on concerns about supply a day after OPEC failed to agree on an increase in production targets.

The catalyst for the euro's fall was provided by the ECB, which left its 2012 inflation forecast unchanged at 1.7 percent, below some forecasts. The steady inflation view suggested the euro zone's pace of rate increases could slow.

As a result, investors pared back their outlook for total rate hikes to about 75 basis points over the next 12 months, from around 80 before Trichet's press briefing.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did signal that rates would be raised again next month, but that move had already been widely expected and priced into the market.

STOCKS JUMP AND AN IPO SOARS

On Wall Street, investors snapped up stocks on the view that the market was oversold after a six-day slide. An S&P index of financial stocks advanced 1.3 percent, while an S&P energy sector index also rose 1.3 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 116.51 points, or 0.97 percent, at 12,165.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 12.10 points, or 0.95 percent, at 1,291.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 12.66 points, or 0.47 percent, at 2,688.04.

Shares of Fusion-io Inc, which makes storage memory hardware and software for data centers, jumped 21 percent in their first day of trading. At midday, the stock was at $23 -- up from its initial offering price of $19.

Stock investors viewed a narrowed US trade deficit as one positive point for growth in a recent avalanche of weak economic data. But the mood remained fragile with many analysts expecting the S&P 500 to retest its March 2010 lows after falling more than 6 percent since a peak in May. "We're basically trading off technicals," said William Larkin, a portfolio manager with Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts. "We're going to be in a very active trading range, and we just need a couple of key warnings -- on consumer confidence, energy prices, whatever -- and markets could continue to weaken."

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares advanced 0.9 percent to 1,104.43 points.

US Treasury yields fell to six-month lows after data showed initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week. The data added to recent evidence the recovery is stalling and stoked demand for safe-haven.

Benchmark 10-year notes were trading with a yield of 2.98 percent. The yield dipped to 2.92 percent early on Thursday, marking the lowest since early December.

EURO'S SLIDE, GREEK BONDS

The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance rose against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.3 percent.

In the currency markets, the spotlight was on the euro, which sank after the ECB left its benchmark interest rates at 1.25 percent as expected.

In a news conference following the decision, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank is in "strong vigilance" mode over inflation, using a code word to signal a rate hike is probably only a month away.

A lack of detail about a new bailout package for Greece and the possibility of write-offs in the banking sector in the event of a Greek debt restructuring also soured sentiment.

"The euro has slipped in what appears to be a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' reaction," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. "We also suspect that negative headlines on Greece and wider regional debt concerns are raising some question marks over the prospects for ongoing ECB policy tightening and euro strength."

Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds came under pressure, pushing spreads over German Bunds wider after Moody's said a Greek default would also impact the credit ratings of other bailed-out countries.

Moody's also said it was hard to imagine resolving Greece's debt crisis with private investors participating on a voluntary basis.

A new international bailout being put together for Greece is likely to total around 120 billion euros, euro-zone official sources said on Thursday. That was higher than the 90 billion euro figure previously suggested by officials.

In the oil market, US crude for July delivery rose $1.11 to $101.85 a barrel, after hitting a session high at $102.44. Brent crude added $1.48 to $119.33 a barrel.

Spot gold hit a peak of $1,549.30 an ounce and was bid at $1,547.44 an ounce, against $1,536.80 late in New York on Wednesday.

 

Copyright Reuters, 2011

 

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