TOKYO: The euro fell against the dollar on Friday but remained above a six-week low, finding some respite after commodities bounced off their overnight lows and as investors refocused their attention on the prospects for a further rise in euro zone interest rates.
But lingering worries about Greece's debt problems continued to weigh on the euro, which has shed roughly 5 percent from a peak near $1.4940 hit in early May.
A recent rout in commodities such as silver and oil has also hurt risk appetite and prompted traders to brace for the possibility of further unwinding of dollar-funded bets on risk assets.
"A rescue package for Greece will probably emerge at an Ecofin meeting next week, and so that could be when we see a peak (in the euro's sell-off)," said a trader for a major Japanese bank in Tokyo.
"But the market is still wary at this point," he added.
A Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers is due to be held on Monday, followed on Tuesday by an Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers.
There are doubts whether a substantial agreement on Greece would emerge from such meetings of euro zone finance ministers, keeping uncertainty high over how long Greece can avoid a restructuring.
The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.4216, but remained above a six-week low of $1.4123 hit on Thursday on trading platform EBS.
The euro earlier dipped below support near $1.4193, the top of the cloud on daily Ichimoku charts, a form of Japanese technical analysis widely used among market players.
A clear breach of that support could open the way for a drop towards levels around $1.3950, the bottom of the daily cloud.
The yen edged higher against the dollar and the euro, with the dollar slipping 0.4 percent to 80.59 yen and the euro shedding 0.7 percent to 114.56 yen
The dollar fell to 80.44 yen at one point, with traders saying the dollar's drop against the yen gained steam after stop-loss orders were triggered near 80.60 yen.
MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK
One factor supporting the euro is market expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in coming months, even as the US Federal Reserve seems committed to keep borrowing costs near zero.
"The euro's pull-back may continue in the near term, but after that it will probably head back towards $1.45," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist, Japan, at Barclays Capital, referring to Barclays' forecast for the euro.
Comments from an ECB policymaker on Thursday underscored expectations for euro zone interest rates to rise further.
The European Central Bank's April interest rate rise was "certainly not" a one off move as inflation risks in the euro zone have increased and price pressures are building, ECB policymaker Luc Coene said on Thursday.
The Australian dollar, another currency that has retreated this month after rallying sharply in recent months, fell 0.2 percent to $1.0640.
Selling of the euro and the Australian dollar by hedge funds helped to drag those currencies lower on Friday, trader Reuters
The scope of the Australian dollar's rally over the past year, from a trough near $0.8080 last June to a 29-year peak of $1.1012 earlier this month, suggests that a further pull-back might be in the cards, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Singapore.
"The Australian dollar has risen by about 3,000 pips over the past year. I don't think it would be so strange if it were to give back a third of that rise over two to three months. Such a move would be a normal correction," Okagawa said.
The Australian dollar could dip back below parity in coming months, Okagawa said, adding that the 200-day moving average near $0.9925 would likely lend the Aussie dollar support.
The dollar index, which measures the US dollar's value against a basket of currencies, held steady at 75.272, near a three-week high of 75.645 hit on Thursday.
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