SINGAPORE: CBOT wheat would rise into a range of $8.93-1/4 to $$9.45 over the next three months, as a long-term uptrend could have been established after a rise from the June 2010 low of $4.25-1/2 per bushel.
The rise developed a five-wave cycle, labeled as a wave (1), and the following wave (2) correction from the wave "5" peak at $8.93-1/4 could have ended around $6.59-1/2, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level.
The upward wave (3) will travel towards an aggressive target at $11.23-3/4, the 100 percent Fibonacci projection level based on the length of the wave (1).
But a realistic target would be $9.45, the 61.8 percent level.
It is critical for wheat to stay above a pivotal support at $6.59-1/2, as a fall below which will invalidate the wave counts, with a bearish target to be established at $5.50.
** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
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