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Markets Print edition: 2019-11-21

Raw sugar climbs on slow India output

Published Updated

ICE raw sugar futures rose on Wednesday, boosted partly by a slow start to the 2019/20 cane crushing season in India, while arabica and robusta coffee gained as funds scaled back bearish positions.

March raw sugar settled up 0.06 cent, or 0.47%, at 12.75 cents per lb.

Indian sugar mills produced 485,000 tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and Nov. 15, down from 1.34 million tonnes last year, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in a statement on Wednesday.

Dealers said that while the sugar harvest had gotten off to a slower start this year, it was too early to draw conclusions about the outlook for the whole season with the second-largest producing state, Maharashtra, yet to start its crushing season.

They noted the market continued to lack a clear overall trend after failing to break to the upside last week when the March contract hit 12.91 cents, its highest since early October.

The recent decline in Brazil's real to a record low against the dollar has helped to keep a lid on the market.

"Such a parity encourages Brazilian producers to accelerate export sales in dollars to benefit from a positive exchange rate effect," analyst Agritel said in a market note.

March white sugar settled up 60 cents, or 0.18%, at $336.6 per tonne.

March arabica coffee rose 2.45 cents, or 2.3%, to $1.0855 per lb, recouping most of the prior session's losses.

Dealers said supplies were tightening with a global deficit generally forecast for the 2019/20 season, an off-year in Brazil's biennial crop cycle.

Funds have scaled back a net short position in the last few weeks, although the market's contango structure means that the rolling forward of short positions remains profitable.

"There's been an enormous fund short position that is now being liquidated, and from here it means the funds can sell a lot more and get shorter or they can go long. ... All of this in the face of what I think is generally accepted as probable is that Brazil will have a very good crop," said Mike Nugent, president of brokerage MJ Nugent & Co in Sonoma, California.

Arabica coffee futures are forecast to rise by the end of next year as exchange stocks decline, Rabobank said in an Outlook 2020 report issued on Wednesday.

January robusta coffee settled up $46, or 3.43%, at $1,386 per tonne.

March New York cocoa settled down $25, or 0.94%, at $2,628 per tonne, retreating further after hitting $2,694 on Monday, the highest since May 2018.

New York March cocoa may retrace to $2,616, as it faces a resistance at $2,683 per tonne, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. March London cocoa settled down 9 pounds, or 0.47%, at 1,920 pounds per tonne, with losses limited by a weak pound.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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