It is difficult to separate noise from hard facts without data, except the tradition refuses to take root in Pakistan. Just today, a PBC progress report on “Make in Pakistan” has noted that loss of cotton acres to sugarcane cultivation is a bottleneck in revival of textile industry. Instead of relying on indigenous raw material, the garment sector has witnessed record import of cotton in recent years, resulting in loss of precious foreign exchange.
PBC is not the only reputable body to make this claim. Afterall, the last decade has witnessed cane cultivation making serious inroads in Rahim Yar Khan district - once considered heartland of Punjab’s cotton belt - following establishment of major sugar milling units in the region. Sixty hectares of cane were added between FY08 and FY17, highest for any region in the province.
However, this discovery beguiles the overarching trends in cropping pattern in the province. Between FY08 and FY17, largest kharif crop in each of Punjab’s 36 districts has remained unchanged. Based on AMIS data, BR Research made an effort to map Punjab’s major Kharif crop-belts, identifying visible demarcations between cropping preference by region.
What do the findings show? Has cotton witnessed major loss in acreage? Yes. Has the decline been most severe in southern region? Also correct. Has sugarcane recorded gains in the region during the same period? Correct as well.
Except, the gains recorded by cane in southern cotton belt - or for that matter, inclusive of gains for rice and maize - do not add up to the loss of acreage witnessed by cotton. While cotton lost over 540 hectares in southern Punjab, aggregate gain by three other major crops only stood at 282 hectares. Largest gains in fact were recorded by maize at 104 hectares, followed by a century for paddy, and just 79 hectares for sugarcane.
Cotton’s loss, as has been noted several times in this space, is primarily a function of poor remunerative returns for growers, change of weather patterns, higher vulnerability to pests, and instances of crop failure that have pushed growers toward alternatives. In fact, national Agriculture Statistics show that overall acreage under kharif crops has been on a secular decline during last 10 years. For some in the farming community, leaving land uncultivated is still better than taking care after the crop all season and yet failing to recover cost of inputs such as labour, fertilizer, utilities, and transport.
Policymakers’ fixation with area under cultivation reflects traditional Pakistani obsession with land. Lest we forget, land is not the only factor input. The key to cotton’s revival is introduction of better technology in the form of improved agronomics and high yielding varieties. But is anyone listening?
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