Rains in December have helped the development of Brazil's 2018/19 arabica coffee crop in all producing regions surveyed by research center Cepea, following dry weather in certain areas, according to a statement on Tuesday. In the Cerrado Mineiro and Mogiana regions, where the weather was dry until September, rainfall allowed the recovery of coffee trees, said Cepea, a unit of the University of S?o Paulo's agriculture college.
Despite the improved weather conditions, Cepea predicts coffee output in the 2018/19 cycle will not surpass the 2016/17 crop due to factors related to flowering in some areas and crop renewals in Cerrado, the statement said. Coffee trees have a biennial cycle that may result in the alternation of heavy and light crops, with 2017/2018 being an off year.
Brazil's total 2017/18 coffee crop is estimated at 44.77 million bags of arabica and robusta, below the 51.37 million bags from the previous cycle, according to the government's statistics and food supply agency Conab, which will revise its coffee crop estimates on Thursday. Through December 15, rain volumes had surpassed 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) in virtually all arabica regions included in the Cepea survey, the agency said, citing data from the national meteorology institute Inmet.
The outlook for robusta is positive for farmers in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, thanks in part to the return of rains, Cepea said.
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