Will 2012 be different?

During the past year we witnessed many sad and unwanted happenings of violence, intolerance and sectarianism. Deviance of law was also seen in the form of grabbing illegal possession of property, money extortion and killings of innocent people.
We also witnessed Pakistan's deteriorating relationship with United States and Afghanistan. Some other important events in foreign relation also took place, and among these an improvement in relations with India is noticeable.
In this background, an effort has been made to review the events of the past year and to forecast the trends of the coming year.
Domestic Scene
Presently, Pakistani society is passing through a phase in which hate and divide are rampant. This divide is based on personal gains, and selfish desires. One can see the existence of a marked division of right and left wings, there are moderates too, but the ultra-rightists, it appears, are determined to promote their policy of extremism. Extremism is being supported by many political parties and the state of anarchy witnessed in Karachi last year is a testimony of such thinking.
It is unfortunate though the political parties are supporting unruly elements and criminals and these elements are openly defying the writ of the state. The parties are supposed to be an important element of social contract of the community. If this contract lacks sanctity, how can we think of rule of law and democracy. The political parties will have to realise their moral and social obligations towards society in order to resolve conflict and divide. It looks the existing trends of deviance of law will make their presence felt in the coming year.
The mindset of extremism jeopardises the rights of minorities, women and children, and it looks that the lengthening shadows of prevalent extremism of the past year will engulf the coming year.
Deviance from the state policy, and disobedience to law of the land by the out of state actors lead to the ugly event relating to PNS Mehran. One can feel that some awareness in this regard exists and state organisations are quite serious to weed out such elements from their circle. Nevertheless, this push and pull of unruly elements is likely to continue in the coming year.
Media has very effectively exposed the disputed networks of terror and hate and their nefarious activities. And for that many journalists were slain by these unruly elements. Pakistan emerged among those countries where lives of journalists are at high risk. This trend is also likely to continue.
Domestic scene is also riddled with violence and crimes including the failure of state agencies to safeguard life, liberty and property, though guaranteed by the Constitution. These failures are showing the lack of expertise and courage on the part of law enforcement agencies. The judges are constantly under threat making things difficult for administration of justice. This trend is likely to continue.
From economic and sociological perspectives, public policies pursued in the past have failed in imparting equity and equality in the society, and political decisions are instrumental in increasing the poverty. This trend requires an immediate arrest. If the growth in poverty at the current rate continues, street crimes will increase.
These trends at the domestic scene are likely to continue in the coming year.
International Scene
We are engaged with USA, Afghanistan, China and India. The relationship with USA has been deteriorating for the last couple of years and it went nose dive after the happenings of events like Raymond Davis, Abbotabad and Salala. Obviously, there appears to be a divide and gulf in the viewpoints of both the countries on existing issues. An environment of mistrust exists between the intelligence agencies of the two countries, their widening opposing views and existing difference in their perceptions require a re-consideration. This trend of mistrust in relationship will continue.
Pakistan and United States are co-operating with each other in the war on Terrorism, and this co-operation will continue in the coming year keeping in view the larger interests of both the countries. However, our relationship with USA will still remain under stress and strain during the coming year.
China has been our dependable friend since long, and this relationship is strengthening. We see emergence of more co-operation between these two friendly countries in the coming year.
Due to force of circumstances, and despite opposition, Pakistan has decided to extend MFN treatment to India, the decision suggests that there is a rethinking in the perceptions of both the countries, and present review of the existing relationship is a welcome step. Despite this fact, India will have to do a lot more (including the settlement of the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir) for the improvement of relationship in the coming year. Both countries have however, realised that improvement in relationship is in their larger interests. The trend of improving relationship with our neighbours will continue in the coming year.
In maintaining good relationship with Pakistan, Afghanistan has been faltering since long, and this fact is not in the interest of both the countries. Pakistan, in the region is a recognisable power, and no peace can take place in Afghanistan unless both the countries settle their existing differences. For peace and settlement of divide in the Afghan society Pakistan can play an effective role. But weak and puppet governments in Afghanistan are creating hurdles in improving the relations. However, it looks that Pakistan will remain engaged with Afghanistan for peace and improvement of bilateral relations.
Conclusion
Pakistan is a country of creative and innovative people, and despite all odds, it has displayed the strength to overcome its difficulties. The economic conditions in Pakistan, are likely to improve as marked growth has been witnessed in the agriculture sector. This trend of growth in agriculture output will continue in 2012.