Filmnomics

Probably after more than a decade I found myself sitting in a cinema hall in Pakistan, correction a Cineplex. The experience was nostalgic and most enjoyable and as a family, baring exam preparation, we are looking forward to at least a monthly visit to the theatres. Directly or indirectly this also evidences the improving perceptions regarding the security situation in the twin cities.
While our family's menu was limited to Hollywood, the invasion of Indian movies could hardly be ignored. Full length posters of Indian movies adorned the Cineplex and the queues for watching Salman Khan in action were definitely bigger than those for Kung Fu Panda.
My generation's prejudices may not be comparable in intensity with that of the generation which experienced independence, our fathers, nonetheless the experience of wars in our lifetime have etched in our memories irreconcilable dogmas. At times the noise relating to improving relations with our neighbour and granting them favoured nation status vis-à-vis trade is frustrating and one wonders about the widespread naivety. Relationships are based on trust and such propagandists need to first tick that box!
Unbridled passions and emotions are the devils trademark therefore the debate on harmonising relations with our neighbour is best left to experienced and qualified analysts. All the same the situation is confusing. On the one hand the list of allegations and counter allegations include interests outside our geography but on the other we most likely are their film industries biggest ally. Through a stroke of genius or, as we would prefer to think, by sheer luck, our adversary has devised a scheme whereby we ourselves end up financing her misadventures. Someone at our end sure needs to get their act together.
Ignoring the economic cost of purchasing movies for a minute, the fusion of cultures cannot bode well for us also. Juxtaposing their values with ours will probably be synonymous to the proverbial Crow forgetting his walk! Alas a concerned parent once again is getting carried away.
Reverting to the leitmotif, a cursory search on film economics reveals results which need contemplation. In 2008, theater admissions in India approximated 3.3 billion, roughly 3 times their population. The revenue for 2008 reached USD 1.8 billion and it is expected to have reached USD 3.3 billion in 2010. The estimated number of feature films released in 2010 is around 1200. Total number of cinemas is probably in excess of 13,000.
Compare this with our film industry. The total number of feature films produced in 2010 in Pakistan is a whopping 9! In 1990 we had approximately 750 cinema theaters which number has declined to around 200 today. There is hardly any point in trying to search for total revenues after all how much can 9 movies earn especially when they probably have difficulty finding a theater which is willing to screen them.
As already mentioned these numbers are based on a quick search so may not be entirely correct, nonetheless they should be reliable for ballpark estimates. Extrapolating on the basis of population only, our film industry should have produced 190 movies which should have achieved 570 million admissions in roughly 2000 theaters grossing USD 500 million. But than again art cannot be extrapolated, talent is the only criteria. Who knows, in our "What if" scenario, Pakistani movies could have be running in Indian theaters and our tax collectors would be smiling all the way to the treasury.
The point is that the raw material for the entertainment is human talent and Pakistan is blessed with abundance. With little to no encouragement our some of our artists have succeeded in wresting recognition on the global landscape and are even sought out by Bollywood, which really isn't something to be proud off! Additionally export of performing arts projects the host country and its culture positively, not to mention additional foreign exchange. Pakistan would have gained tremendously in current times if the world could have seen us in a different light.
For some of us there are no zero sum situations, for every win there is a loss. The question is: what did we gain in eliminating an industry which did not need to import raw material, could have been a source of creating continuing employment, would have provided entertainment for the poor, generated foreign exchange, enhanced tax collections and projected us as a hospitable upright nation?
The answer is elusive. Apparently the decline started in 1980s during the days of extreme censorship. On a particular level one is supportive of censor with the corollary that it should be applicable across the board. If we want to shield our next generation from indecency than shutting down our own industry is just not enough.
If we have the greedy tax collector to thank for this debacle, than he has apparently shot himself in the foot. As the proverb goes, you can't squeeze blood from a rock. Had the policy makers nurtured the industry patiently, they would be reaping the dividends now. There have been news about provincial governments reducing indirect taxes over the short-term, too little too late.
It is for the industry experts to identify what is really needed to revive the film industry, if at all the government sincerely so decides, what is however critical is that half hearted attempts should be avoided. Tax exemptions need to cover a long term horizon rather than 3 or 5 years and there should be a total exemption for Pakistani films and everyone associated thereof, direct and indirect.
Serious brain storming is needed to encourage entrepreneurs to consider investing in latest technology as well as training institutes, eliminating import duties may not be enough. Obviously, incentives should be restricted to the home industry, not for cinemas running Hollywood or Bollywood. Conversely, an additional surcharge can be imposed on foreign films and their screening which can be made available to the industry for training, research and development. This strategy has a precedent in other industries. Soft debt may also be an option.
Those who support protectionism continue to scream a proactive approach to support our declining industries. If we continue to procrastinate, there may not be anything left to revive, which may already be the case. If we are worried about tax collections, those will in any case disappear with the industry. Some one at the top immediately needs to tackle film economics.