African currencies outlook

The Kenyan shilling is expected to firm against the dollar in the next week to Thursday, helped by the central bank's tightening of monetary policy, while new foreign exchange requirements are seen lifting the Nigerian naira.
KENYA The Kenyan shilling is seen recovering, helped by the central bank's surprise raising of the overnight lending rate, and reduced dollar demand from the energy sector.
The central bank moved to curtail speculative trading by commercial banks and raised the overnight lending rate to 8.0 percent to stem foreign exchange volatility and rising inflation. The bank's actions helped the shilling to recover some losses from its record low of 91.90 hit on June 22.
TANZANIA The Tanzanian shilling hit a new low against the dollar of 1,622 during the week and is seen remaining under pressure from oil importer demand for forex. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 1,615/1,620 to the dollar, compared with 1,604/1,609 at last week's close. Traders said the shilling will likely trade in the 1,610-1,620 range in the coming week.
UGANDA The Ugandan shilling will stay under pressure in the next week without central bank intervention because demand still far outstrips inflows, traders said. The country's central bank said on Thursday it had sold hard currency after the shilling hit its fourth record low this week, triggering a sharp rebound in the shilling.
The shilling slipped to an all-time low of 2,710 per dollar on Thursday, before central bank sold an unspecified amount of dollars. That sent the shilling to a traded a high of 2,495, a level last traded at on June 27.
NIGERIA The naira is expected to continue to strengthen on supportive central bank policy moves and month-end dollar sales by oil firms. As of July 1, the central bank will lift a rule that foreign investors hold government debt for at least one year, a move which is expected to attract new offshore inflows, boosting dollar supply and increasing demand for the naira. The naira firmed to 152.08 against the greenback on the interbank market on Thursday, from Wednesday's close of 153.70 naira, its strongest level since early March.
GHANA Ghana's cedi is seen holding steady into the second half of the year due to policy interventions including plans to issue a five-year government note, analysts said on Thursday. Ghana's central bank has announced plans to auction on July 28, the first 5-year paper since December 2007 to raise 300 million cedis to finance road projects.
ZAMBIA The Zambia kwacha is expected to soften as foreign investors buy the US currency to repatriate their Treasury bill maturities. The kwacha has traded between 4,800 and 4,600 for most of this year. On the few occasions it breached that level it went on to test, but failed to breach.