French soft wheat production to fall in 2011

French soft wheat production is expected to fall 13 percent in 2011 after a drought-affected growing season, the country's farm office said on Wednesday in its first forecasts for the upcoming harvest. FranceAgriMer estimated this year's French wheat crop would drop to 31 million tonnes from 35.6 million in 2010, with the average yield seen down 15 percent at 6.15 tonnes per hectare.
The crop forecast was earlier than usual, with the office usually giving harvest estimates as of July, and officials cautioned that final production would depend on the impact of varying weather conditions up until harvesting. "It's a smaller harvest but there is no reason to panic," FranceAgriMer's Xavier Rousselin told reporters, stressing there would be enough supply for domestic needs and exports.
The fall in production coupled with the planned resumption of normal export flows from Black Sea producers led FranceAgriMer to project a sharp fall in French wheat exports. The office put French wheat exports outside the European Union in the upcoming 2011/12 season at 6 million tonnes, well below a raised estimate of 13.2 million tonnes for 2010/11, which would be a new record. But officials put in perspective the export decrease, given the record level this season when France benefited from the absence of Russia on export markets, and an expected increase in French exports within the EU in 2011/12.
"We are going to return to a more normal year due to the presence of competitors," Christian Vanier, another FranceAgriMer official, said. Wheat stocks at the end of 2011/12 would be around 2 million tonnes, close to a revised estimate of 2.1 million tonnes for the end of the current season on June 30. FranceAgriMer also forecast a sharp decline in barley output, estimating the total 2011 crop at 8.7 milion tonnes, down from 10.15 million last year.