A three-month drought that has scorched French wheat crops this year led analyst Agritel to forecast that the country's output could fall by 11.5 percent from last year's total to 31.7 million tonnes. In its first estimate for the 2011/2012 harvest, the French analyst said on Wednesday France's average wheat crop yield could dip by 13 percent to 6.31 tonnes per hectare, against 7.25 tonnes last year.
This would not be compensated by a 2 percent rise in area at just over 5 million hectares. This average yield would be slightly lower than in 2003 and 2007, the last droughts that caused damage to crops in France. "This drop in expected yields is the direct consequence of a lack of rain during the past three months," Agritel said.
Market players estimate this year's wheat harvest in France at 33 million-34 million tonnes, with some forecasts as low as 31.5 million tonnes. In 2007 the crop was at 30.6 million tonnes. Benchmark new crop November in Euronext milling wheat futures hit a 3-month high after the forecast, up 2.8 percent at 238.00 euros a tonne.
The French environment minister said earlier this week France was "in a situation of crisis" and imposed limits on water consumption in 28 of its 96 administrative departments. Total rainfall in April amounted to barely 29 percent of the average established over the 1971-2000 period, the ministry said in a report, adding that soils in the northern part of the country were experiencing the driest conditions in 50 years.
Agritel said excessive temperatures in April had increased stress on crops, drying them out further. It added that it could revise its estimates depending on the rainfall in the next two to three weeks. Agritel does not expect the fall in French output to have a direct iimpact on global wheat prices If France benefited from the Black Sea countries' withdrawal from the export market this season after a severe drought over the summer, the situation may reverse next season, it said.
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