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The dollar dipped but held near a three-week high against a basket of currencies on Thursday as a rout in commodities and an uncertain outcome on Greece's debt problems lowered risk appetite and prompted traders to expect more unwinding of dollar-funded bets on risk assets, with its break above a trendline pointing to the chance of more gains.
The euro, bruised by concern that the problems in Greece could spin out of control despite policymakers' efforts to support it, hovered just above a three-week low against the dollar after having broken below its 55-day moving average, and touched a 1-1/2 month low against the pound. Adding momentum to a sell-off in commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar tumbled more than 1 percent to a one-week low after surprisingly weak Australian jobs data reduced market expectations of a rate hike.
The decline in the euro and the Aussie dollar also reflected a broader recovery in the US dollar, with its index against a basket of currencies having shot up to a three-week high on Wednesday, and more importantly breaking above a trendline that has capped it during its relentless fall since the beginning of this year.
The index, which has risen about 3.5 percent from a three-year low of 72.696 hit last week, last stood at 75.26, down 0.1 percent on the day but still holding near a three-week high of 75.419 struck on Wednesday. The euro traded at $1.4218, up 0.2 percent on the day after having fallen to $1.4172 on Wednesday, its lowest in three weeks.
Sporadic buying set in after the euro had bounced off major support levels around $1.4150 - near the mid-April low and a 38.2 percent retracement of the January-May rise to around $1.4145. There could be more bargain-hunting bids just above the top of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, at $1.4118.
The euro also rebounded from a six-week low of 114.56 yen on Wednesday to fetch 115.45 yen, rising 0.4 percent on the day. The euro rose 0.1 percent against sterling to 0.8689 pound, having dipped to 0.86735 pound earlier on Thursday, the euro's lowest since late March. Sterling was supported after the Bank of England raised its inflation forecasts, leading markets to bring forward the possible timing of an interest rate hike. A broad recovery in the dollar also pushed the US currency to a one-week high against the yen. The dollar rose as high as 81.35 yen. The Australian dollar fell as low as $1.0585, down nearly 4 percent from a 29-year peak hit last week.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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