Aussie dollar to hold above parity, New Zealand $ seen easing

The sky-high Australian dollar is seen to hang on above parity over the next year helped by speculation domestic rates, already among the highest in the developed world, may head even higher, a poll showed on Friday.
A Reuters poll of around 45 analysts showed the Australian dollar is seen holding to its recent huge gains at $1.0830 in the next three months, before gently pulling back towards parity on a 12-month horizon.
It tore to a 29-year high of $1.1012 earlier this week, before a large sell-off in commodities on Thursday set it back a little to $1.0725. The Aussie has gained 10 cents in less than two months.
Its meteoric rise has been helped by Asia's voracious demand for Australia's abundant natural resources, from iron ore to coal, copper to gold and wheat to liquefied natural gas.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates at 4.75 percent at its May meeting this week but cautioned that underlying inflation was set to turn higher, so laying the groundwork for a move at some point.
The pre-emptive tightening of the RBA, which has led the developed world by hiking 175 basis point since late 2009, contrasts with the Federal Reserve seen unlikely to raise rates for some time.
Still, Jiao Mengxian, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has a cautious outlook for the Australian dollar.
"A potential trigger for a sharp decline in the AUD would be a large increase in US short-term yields, as the market begins to factor in a greater possibility of Fed tightening down the line," he said.
A survey of around 38 analysts showed a different path for the commodity-sensitive New Zealand dollar. The currency is forecast to gradually drift down from $0.8000 to $0.7600 in six and 12 months. The slip reflects market expectations that a rate increase is unlikely to happen this year.
"The feed-through effects of loose monetary policy are likely to weigh on NZD over the longer-term," said Chris Walker, an analyst at UBS.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week held interest
rates at a record low 2.5 percent and said they would stay there for some time as the economy is recovering from a large earthquake in Christchurch earlier this year.
The kiwi scaled a 3-year peak of $0.8122 earlier this week, before a wave of risk aversion knocked it down to $0.7888. Still, the New Zealand dollar has gained 11 percent since mid-March.