Raising the political temperature

The decision announced by the PML (N) leader Nawaz Sharif to dismiss the seven PPP ministers from the Punjab Cabinet, who continuously complained of lack of any powers in the administration of their ministries, has raised the political temperature to boiling point.
The PPP co-chairman President Asif Ali Zardari wisely selected a widely respected minister Raza Rabbani to address the media and present the PPP point of view though he was flanked by two men who have been known to direct periodic salvoes towards the PML (N) leadership - Babar Awan and Kaira.
By the end of Friday it was clearly evident that the charges hurled by the two major parties in the country against each other were akin to acrimonious divorce proceedings with the two sides claiming a high moral ground. This lent credence to all those who were accusing the PML (N) of a being a 'friendly opposition' that only occasionally took rhetorical umbrage at the numerous scams that were coming to light in the media. The Supreme Court was taking suo motu notice of these scams but the government's investigative branch responsible for gathering and presenting evidence against the accused, irrespective of party affiliations was generally regarded as below par - an obvious fact that the PML (N) focused on only occasionally.
Nawaz Sharif accused the PPP of corruption, mismanagement and outright incompetence in dealing with the myriad problems facing the country today. Implicit in the charge he hurled against the PPP was the PPP's mala fide intent in sustaining corruption and nepotism in appointments. Raza Rabbani claimed that the ten point agenda of PML (N) was part of the PPP manifesto as well, though his claim that the government was committed to fulfilling it, given that the PPP has been in power for nearly three years, lacked credibility.
Rabbani also referred to the PML (Q) forward bloc's decision to sit with the Punjab government, critical if the PML (N) is to remain in power in the Punjab, as unconstitutional and a move that would resurrect the widely denigrated horse-trading of the 1990s. The eighteenth constitutional amendment, to which the PML (N) as well as all others in parliament today was a signatory, does stipulate that the party leader has the sole right to decide how national and provincial assembly members of his party vote on any given issue. The party leader also has the right to dismiss any member that takes a decision on any issue independently. The PML (N) and the PML (Q) forward bloc insist that the constitutional clause Article 63 (a) is specific to an individual or a group of individuals who comprise less than half of the members of a party.
However, this defection clause would be applicable from next election onwards. The PML (Q) forward bloc constitutes more than 50 percent of the party's parliamentarians. In other words their defense is based on their numerical strength and their ability to change the leader of the party. It is likely that the matter may go to the courts, but from the perspective of the PML (N) no one can dislodge its government in the Punjab, whichever of the possible two scenarios comes to pass. If the court grants a stay order, the PML (N) remains in majority; and if the court decides that the forward bloc members lose their seats the PML (N) majority would be sustained till by-elections are held at some future date.
Irrespective of PPP claims, democracy is not about coalitions in the national and provincial assemblies but about a government engaged in policymaking and its implementation as well administration, while the opposition seeks to provide a check and balance to the government's actions. In this context it is relevant to note that the PML (N) ten point agenda was announced subsequent to the departure of the PPP's two coalition partners, namely the JUI (F) and the MQM. In short, the PML (N) was under pressure to show that it is a viable (as opposed to a friendly) opposition committed to the welfare of the people. The decision to part ways with the PPP may thus be seen as a move to distance itself from the PPP as a prelude to the next elections.
Here pundits are agreed that the PML (N) is miscalculating the strength of the party which is based on Nawaz Sharif's personal popularity chart countrywide. While it is evident that Nawaz Sharif is the most popular man in the country today, yet it is equally evident that this popularity may not translate into a heavy mandate for the party as the PML (N) has yet to make any inroads in Sindh. There appears to be no attempt to either launch a campaign in Sindh or indeed to form a coalition in that province. The ANP is firmly entrenched in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and that is the only party that has yet to threaten the PPP in return for some concessions, other than in the number of federal ministries. Thus the PML (N) if it wants to rule in the Centre, subsequent to elections in the near future, would have to abandon its go it alone policy and seek political alliances.
What however Nawaz Sharif said on a private television channel is that with his party now firmly in the opposition, the government may be unable to pass the money bill in June, which may lead the PPP minority government to seek a vote of confidence. That seems unlikely. The PPP as per the constitution would not seek a vote of confidence (the constitution compels the opposition to seek a vote of no-confidence rather than for the government to seek a vote of confidence). The PPP's post-Benazir Bhutto strategy to give in to demands of the coalition members in order to stay in power or withdraw any money bill or any other bill that is not likely to be passed is also unlikely to rock the power boat in the center. Thus mid-term polls are unlikely as reiterated by Raza Rabbani.
So the question is what if anything is likely to change with the PML (N) dismissal of seven powerless Punjab ministers? The major casualty would be the refusal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release the desperately needed second last tranche under the stalled Stand By Arrangement. It was the PML (N) alone that had formed a government in the center in years past and therefore had the capacity to understand the rationale behind the IMF's politically explosive and difficult to implement, but necessary conditions. The IMF's refusal to release the tranche would, in turn, imply that all other bilateral and multilateral assistance with respect to budgetary support would cease.
The Ministry of Finance officials had expressed the hope in recent weeks that the ongoing talks with the PML (N) would ensure the passage of the two money bills tabled in parliament in November. These bills envisaged the implementation of the value added tax, under the inanely renamed reformed general sales tax, a major IMF condition and additional levies to enable reconstruction of flood-affected people and areas in an effort to contain the deficit to 5.1 percent. With the PML (N) decision announced on Friday that support is unlikely and the impact on inflation, given the penchant of this government to print money instead of reducing expenditure or massive leakages, would raise the consumer price index to over 30 percent - more than what the PPP inherited in March 2008. This estimate is premised on the fact that the budget deficit, the PPP inherited was around 7.3 percent and if new taxes are not levied, the deficit is expected to be around 8.3 percent.
To conclude whatever the political repercussions of the PML (N) decision, the economic fallout is expected to be disastrous for the common man. The overwhelming onus of formulating and implementing macroeconomic and monetary policies, designed to take the economy out of its existing morass, rests with the government in the centre; but the minority PPP government in the center has been unable to convince its coalition partners of the sagacity of its proposed revenue plans. In this context, economic hard times due to the continuation of unsustainable expenditure priorities, including rising subsidies to the oil and power sector, and inability to raise revenue, with foreign assistance almost choked off, is our immediate unfortunate future.