China's main share index is not likely to rise much in the first half of 2011 because of worries over monetary tightening, but many sectors are now at attractive valuations, a fund manager at J. PMorgan's JF China Fund said on February 17.
The Shanghai Composite index, which hit a three-and-a-half month low in January, will likely only rise to around 3,000 points in the first half on the tightening concern, Huang Shumin, manager of the fund, told Reuters in an interview "Chinese shares have been falling for over a year, pricing in many negative factors including plunging property prices. But there will still be noise in the market about worries on inflation and a hard landing," Huang said.
China's markets were the worst performers in Asia last year, mostly on worries over the impact of Beijing's efforts to control the amount of cash in the economy and, with it, inflation. The MSCI China index is already trading at the lowest forward 12 months earnings multiple since May 2010. That leaves little room for valuations to compress further, Huang added.
But there are good opportunities. "Most Chinese stocks have approached levels worth investing in. Many property shares have dropped below their net asset values. China's property market has pretty much been under control
following aggressive tightening by the government," she said. Consumption, cement and other firms benefiting from the solid economic growth are also attractive picks, though Huang declined to identify specific targets.
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