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Markets

US soy rises from 14-month low, corn dips

Published Updated

 SINGAPORE: US soy bounced from a 14-month low on Monday, while wheat ticked up from its lowest in more than five months as agricultural markets took a breather following Europe's steps to resolve its debt crisis.

Asian stocks gained after Europe took a step towards fiscal union, but the euro fell amid concerns the euro zone's fragile safety is still insufficient to prevent its sovereign debt crisis from spreading.

Wheat, corn and soybean markets are likely to remain under pressure from record-large crops around the world forecast on Friday by the US Department of Agriculture.

"The markets have held above recent lows, perhaps there is some technical support being played out," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"This week we are going to continue to look at this bearish fundamental picture painted by the USDA and counter that against hopes that the European debt situation will continue to stabilise."

Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans rose 0.3 percent to $11.10-3/4 a bushel by 0344 GMT. Wheat for March delivery added a quarter of a cent to $5.96-1/4 a bushel while March corn fell 0.3 percent to $5.92-3/4 a bushel.

Twenty-six of the 27 European Union leaders on Friday agreed to pursue stricter budget rules for the single currency area and also to have euro zone states and others provide up to 200 billion euros in bilateral loans to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help tackle the crisis.

A Reuters report that China planned a new $300 billion vehicle to invest in Europe and the United States also buoyed investor sentiment, lifting US stocks on Friday.

Fundamentally, the agricultural markets remain bearish as US soy and wheat exports will slow in the face of record-setting grain crops and an upturn in the global soybean harvest, the US government said in its December supply and demand report on Friday.

The USDA forecast the supply of US soybean ending stocks to rise to 230 million bushels, above trade estimates for 214 million bushels and above the November forecast for 195 million bushels.

The stocks increase came from cuts in the USDA's forecasts of US 2011/12 soybean exports and the domestic soybean crush. The USDA also raised the 2011/12 global soybean carryout to 64.54 million tonnes, from 63.56 million in November.

The USDA pegged 2011/12 US wheat ending stocks at 878 million bushels, above trade estimates for 830 million bushels and up from the November forecast of 828 million bushels.

It raised its forecast 2011/12 corn stocks to 848 million bushels, above trade estimates for 831 million bushels and above the November forecast for 843 million bushels.

Traders had expected the USDA to cut corn supply estimates slightly due to rising feed use and a lackluster harvest.

The USDA, most notably, raised its estimate of corn production in China -- the world's second largest consumer of the grain -- by more than 7 million tonnes to 191.75 million but kept the country's import forecast at 3 million next year.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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